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Under the power limit, the new energy vehicle market has no choice but to slam the brakes?

Publish Date: 2021.09.30


   On September 29th, Liaoning issued a Level II orange warning of severe power shortage, which was soon on the hot search.

  

  Since September 23, many places in the Northeast have issued notices of power curtailment, and the notice shows that if the power shortage is not relieved, the curtailment may continue.

  

   "I was walking around that night, the lights in the teaching building of Shenyang No. 2 Middle School next door suddenly went out, and then the students cheered." Zhou Xin, a resident of Shenbei New District, Shenyang, still remembers the power outage on the evening of September 23. That night, affected by the power outage, some roads were congested due to the lack of power to the signal lights.

  

   In the past week, the "power curtailment" started in the northeast and spread to more than ten provinces across the country. According to incomplete statistics from Future Auto Daily, as of September 28, the three provinces of Heiji, Liaoning, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Anhui, Henan, Fujian, Ningxia, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai and other provinces and cities have issued power rationing notices. .

  

   The CCTV website stated that this round of power rationing in many places is mainly affected by factors such as the national coal shortage, the serious inversion of coal costs and the benchmark electricity price, and the decline in the net capacity of the connection line.

  

  Some professionals believe that the insufficient supply of coal and electricity will adversely affect the new energy automobile industry.

  

   According to data released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 249,000 in August, a year-on-year increase of 167.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.0%. From January to August, the retail volume of new energy vehicles was 1.479 million, a year-on-year increase of 202.1%.

  

   The new energy vehicle industry is still plagued by core shortages and battery shortages. Now it is experiencing power shortages. Will the rapidly developing new energy vehicle market be forced to step on the brakes?

  

   There is a power outage, my electric car "can be added when there is no power"

  

   In Baoding, Hebei, this small and peaceful city has not yet encountered a large-scale power outage, but the owners of new energy vehicles have fallen into panic.

  


   Most of Baoding's online car-hailing and taxis use Euler iQ and Great Wall C30 new energy models. Everyone was afraid that the power would suddenly be cut off, and the car would not be able to recharge, so they flooded into the charging stations. Wu Qi, the person in charge of a travel company in Baoding, told Future Auto Daily, "At present, every charging station in Baoding has to queue up for charging."

  

   As Wu Qi recalled, in the past, online car-hailing drivers used to charge at night. “The area of ​​Baoding is not large. The Euler iQ has a cruising range of more than 400 kilometers and can basically maintain one day of operation.”

  

   Now, affected by multiple power restrictions, most drivers increase the frequency of charging once a day to twice or even three times a day. Some drivers use "the time for lunch to replenish the battery, and the driver ran back to the charging station to charge after two runs." People's mileage anxiety has generally increased.

  

   Baoding's online car-hailing drivers are stuck in charging stations to "grab power", while the Northeast car owners have a new understanding of new energy vehicles.

  

   Due to the long winter time and unusually cold climate in Northeast China, the mileage of lithium batteries has decreased significantly. Therefore, most consumers are discouraged from electric vehicles.

  

   But after this power outage, Zhou Xin's view on new energy vehicles has changed.

  

   This is from a video that Zhou Xin brushed on the short video platform, "A car owner used a plug-in hybrid car of his own brand to cook at home". This video touched Zhou Xin, "This is equivalent to a large-scale mobile charging treasure, and the Northeast people who lack electricity need it too much."

  

   Reminiscent of the heavy rain in Henan not long ago, a car owner used a pure electric vehicle for more than a dozen neighbors in the community to charge their mobile phones. The balance in Zhou Xin's heart suddenly moved slightly. You know, people in the Northeast have always been not interested in new energy vehicles. In their hearts, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota and other fuel vehicles are king.

  

   With the spread of electricity curtailment measures across the country, more new energy vehicle owners have entered a state of "preparation". "I don't plan to go out during the eleventh holiday. If the charging pile on the road loses power, how to come back is a problem." A Xiaopeng P7 owner in Beijing said worriedly. There are also new energy vehicle owners who have changed their commuting methods to subways and buses.

  

   Charging piles are accelerating to "optical storage and charging"?

  

   Inevitably, the charging business is also affected.

  

   A Guangzhou charging pile operator revealed that Guangzhou Haizhu District and Yuexiu District are affected by local power supply shortages, and charging piles in some areas are more likely to face power outages. A “2021 Notice of Orderly Power Consumption in Guangzhou Area” also shows that some charging piles in Haizhu area will be off peak-to-peak power consumption from 8 a.m. to 11 p.m. from Monday to Friday. That is to say, electric vehicle owners can only Charge in the corresponding time period.

  


  

Like Baoding, “Most of the online car-hailing services in Guangzhou are electric vehicles. Once the charging station has limited power, it will affect our daily charging plan.” A taxi driver in Guangzhou told Future Car Daily, “Many electric vehicles need to be fast during the day. If the charging piles with high frequency of use are restricted, it will definitely affect the income of many taxi drivers."

  

   Also, the peak usage period of fast-charging piles is during the day, and once concentrated use occurs, it will inevitably cause power supply pressure in some areas.

  

   Since 2020, under the east wind of new infrastructure, new energy vehicle energy supplement has become a hot business, and the number of charging piles has doubled. According to statistics from the Charging Alliance, as of August 2021, the total number of charging infrastructure in the country has increased by 52.3% year-on-year to 2.105 million units, and this number is still growing.

  

  

  

   Even so, compared to industrial electricity and civilian electricity, the electricity consumption of pure electric vehicles has little impact on the grid. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Travel Association, said that in August, electric vehicle charging only occupied 0.2% of total electricity consumption. “Even if the number of electric vehicles increases to 60 million in the future, it will occupy less than 2% of electricity resources, which is a low risk. state".

  

Therefore, Shenzhen charging pile operator Cui Wei judged that “power curtailment will not have much impact on the charging pile industry, and the current power curtailment has not affected Shenzhen.” The new energy vehicle industry is encouraged and supported by policies, and the charging infrastructure It belongs to the scope of people's livelihood protection. "Operators provide public services, this part of the power supply should be able to meet."

  

   Cui Wei believes that the impact of power curtailment on the new energy vehicle industry lies more in the "power supply to charging piles may be diversified." In the future, the charging pile industry will soon realize the application of "optical storage and charging" (distributed photovoltaic power generation, energy storage system, charging and discharging).

  

  The integrated solar storage and charging charging station integrates the functions of photovoltaic power generation, energy storage, charging and discharging, and can convert solar energy into electric energy and store it in the energy storage battery, which is finally used for charging new energy vehicles. This model will not have any impact on the grid, and it can also adjust the peak-to-valley price difference through the energy storage system, reducing daily electricity costs. At present, Cui Wei's company is developing prototypes and demonstration communities. "Although the one-time investment is high, it is more in line with the development trend of the industry in the long run."

  

   The new energy vehicle market slammed on the brakes?

  

   Car owners panic and power up, the charging pile industry is accelerating the transformation, and the thriving new energy vehicle market ushered in a big test.

  

   Chen Guangzu, an expert in the Chinese automobile industry, believes that if the shortage of electric coal supply continues to increase, it will take the lead in affecting the production of new energy vehicles. "The manufacturing of new energy vehicle batteries requires a large amount of coal-fired power generation to operate. If the supply of coal-fired power generation is insufficient, the production capacity of power batteries will be greatly affected."

  


  

   Some industry insiders revealed to Future Auto Daily that some small-scale suppliers had power outages, which affected the repair of some molds, which affected the production schedule of auto companies.

  

   In addition, in order to achieve curtailment of electricity and production, various localities have issued notices to reduce the production of raw materials related to new energy vehicles.

  

   On September 11, the Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Resolutely Doing a Good Job in Dual Control of Energy Consumption", requiring that the average monthly output of the yellow phosphorus production line in the yellow phosphorus industry from September to December 2021 should not exceed 10% of August's. As a raw material for the production of iron phosphate, the production of yellow phosphorus has been greatly reduced and the price has soared. Affected by this, the market transaction price of lithium iron phosphate batteries is also gradually rising, and the production costs of new energy car companies have further increased.

  

   Zhang Xiang, an automotive industry analyst, said that the reason for the curtailment was the rise in coal prices, which led to losses for thermal power companies. This round of power rationing will lead to an increase in electricity prices and an increase in the cost of using new energy vehicles, which is an unfavorable factor for the development of new energy vehicles.

  

   The shortage of coal and electricity has blocked the production of new energy car companies everywhere, and on the sales side, they are also inhibiting consumers' desire to buy. "The charging pile layout network is still imperfect, and the potential risk of power failure will undoubtedly persuade some potential users of new energy vehicles." Chen Guangzu believes.

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