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Will lithium ore prices drop?

Publish Date: 2022.06.18

  "The total amount of lithium in the world is sufficient, and the big reason for the price increase is speculation."

  In the high-end dialogue of "Yibin on the Cloud" on June 16, Wu Kai, chief scientist of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said.

  At present, the price of lithium carbonate has increased by 10 times, and the price of raw materials, power batteries and new energy drivers has been increasing continuously. How to ensure supply and how to stabilize prices? Which route is the end of the power battery? How to tap the potential of my country's battery raw material resources?

  In the future, how will power batteries solve problems such as safety, battery life, high prices and supply and demand gaps?

  In the high-end dialogue of "Yibin on the Cloud", Academician Ouyang Minggao had an in-depth discussion with six outstanding entrepreneurs in the power battery field.

  The "Yibin on the Cloud" high-end dialogue event was hosted by the Sichuan Provincial People's Government, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and jointly organized by the Equipment Industry Development Center of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ouyang Minggao Academician Workstation.

  How to break the tide of rising prices?

  Academician Ouyang Minggao believes that the supply of raw materials can meet long-term demand, but the rapid development of electric vehicles and the new crown epidemic have led to short-term supply and demand gaps. A stable supply and demand system for battery materials and an efficient and intelligent recycling system for battery materials should be established.

  The multiple influences of the industrial cycle, the epidemic, and the tension in the international situation are superimposed, and the cost of upstream raw materials for power batteries continues to rise. Enterprises in the industrial chain bear the pressure of rising costs.

  Academician Ouyang suggested establishing a stable supply and demand system for battery materials.

  At the enterprise level, upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain should establish a long-term, stable and friendly cooperative relationship with a win-win attitude. Vehicles, batteries, upstream materials of batteries, and resources should be considered together to improve long-term and short-term demand forecasting and preparation capabilities for battery materials. At the national level, it has gradually carried out effective guidance and layout for upstream production expansion, further developed domestic resources independently, and established closer bilateral cooperation with Australia, South America and other regions in terms of international cooperation to ensure the supply of raw materials. At the same time, technological innovation is an effective solution to solve the shortage of metals or the cost cannot meet the needs of OEMs.

  Carry out efficient and intelligent recycling of battery materials. Battery recycling is not only the responsibility of recycling companies. Efficient, automated and intelligent recycling has a lot to do with the structure and architecture of the battery itself. Therefore, at the initial design end of the battery, including the design of the battery cell and the battery pack, it is necessary to consider the convenience of disassembly in the future. In the next-generation battery recycling system, the level of intelligence and automation will be greatly improved, which can further guarantee the supply of raw materials.

  How to tap the potential of lithium-ion batteries

  In the face of the rapid development of the electric vehicle and energy storage market, the performance of power batteries in terms of high safety, high specific energy, long life and fast charging has attracted the attention of consumers. Different scenarios and different market segments have differences in product performance requirements. How to balance product economy and high performance is an issue that industry enterprises need to consider more.

  The specific energy level of power batteries continues to rise. At present, the energy density of ternary prismatic batteries is close to 300Wh/kg, and the energy density of soft pack batteries has reached 330Wh/kg; the energy density of semi-solid batteries has also exceeded 360Wh/kg, and it is expected to achieve 400Wh/kg by 2025; the energy density of lithium-sulfur batteries is expected to be achieved in the future. Up to 600Wh/kg. At the same time, safety is also the lifeline of battery companies. Whether it is the continuous innovation and iteration of high-nickel, low-cobalt/cobalt-free, high-manganese and other technologies, it is a prerequisite to ensure the safety performance of batteries.

  In terms of cycle life, with the continuous innovation of battery material technology, various battery manufacturers have brought forth new innovations in battery system technology, so that the cruising range of passenger cars has exceeded 1,000 kilometers, and the life of power batteries has exceeded the life of the whole vehicle.

  Many OEMs have deployed high-power fast charging. At present, the fast charging power of passenger cars is about 50-150KW. In the next step, the fast charging power will be increased to 350KW, and it can travel 400 kilometers in 10 minutes. It can be used in scenes such as highway rest areas to ease the anxiety of waiting for charging.

  Academician Ouyang Minggao pointed out that we must not only balance various indicators, but also improve the absolute value. Each battery company must have its own characteristics and insist on diversified development. The performance indicators of lithium batteries should take into account the needs of different application scenarios to maximize the comprehensive benefits of the battery. We believe that the absolute value of each performance index of the battery will continue to improve, which is an inevitable trend of technological development.

  Guests: Wu Kai, Chief Scientist of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Wang Yu, Chairman and CEO of Funeng Technology (Ganzhou) Co., Ltd., Zheng Xiang, Dean of Research Institute of Zhongxin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., Ningbo Rongbai Bai Houshan, Chairman of New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Yang Rukun, Chairman of Shenzhen Jiyang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., and Yu Huigen, Chairman and General Manager of Beijing Weilan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.

  Diversification of power battery technology

  Under the guidance of low-carbon development goals, the automobile industry has accelerated its transformation to the new energy automobile industry. As the core key component of new energy vehicles, the technological development trend of power battery is one of the most concerned topics in the industry. In the short term, the technical route is relatively clear. In the medium and long term, related technologies are being actively deployed and are developing in a diversified manner. There is huge room for imagination in the future.

  Ternary and lithium iron phosphate have their own characteristics and are suitable for different market segments. In the future, power batteries are likely to have more innovations in material systems. From the current point of view, the performance of sodium ion low-temperature charging and fast charging is very outstanding. Manganese-based solid-state batteries such as lithium manganate and lithium iron manganate have excellent economic performance and low-temperature performance. Both of them have entered the new generation of the industry by virtue of their respective advantages. Power battery technology research and development layout.

  In terms of structural innovation, a hundred flowers are blooming, but in the end, it is to maximize the utilization efficiency of battery pack volume. At present, various power battery companies have been promoting innovation in battery structure design. There are soft packs, hard shells, and cylinders, long knives and short knives, and CTP, CTC, One-Stop, and Kirin batteries are emerging one after another. Each has its own advantages and is making continuous efforts to promote the volume utilization rate of battery packs.

  Academician Ouyang Minggao said that the current momentum of innovation in my country's power battery industry is rapid and needs to be maintained. Developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan have also continued to cultivate in the field of power batteries, and each has its own advantages. Therefore, while we are promoting the development of the industry down-to-earth, we must also look up to the stars, and continue to pay attention to and reserve the direction of related technological innovation in the medium and long term.

  The western region has great industrial potential

  In recent years, under the national strategic layout of "Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle", "One Belt One Road", Yangtze River City Cluster, RCEP, etc., the economic level of the western region has been continuously improved, automobile consumption has shown a trend of rapid growth, and development potential and advantages have become increasingly apparent. .

  Academician Ouyang Minggao believes that the new round of power battery industry development opportunities will bring a lot of growth impetus to the western region. CATL has built the world's single largest power battery production base with 200GWh in Yibin, and the overall power battery production capacity plan in Sichuan Province is also in place. In the forefront of the country.

  The guests agreed that the western region is rich in mineral resources, especially lithium reserves. With the acceleration of resource development, it will attract more enterprises to deploy; the western region is rich in green power resources and has unique advantages in low-carbon production and energy transformation. Advantage.

  The development potential of the power battery industry in the western region is huge, and a new industrial cluster will be formed. Companies such as China Innovation Aviation and Funeng Technology stated that they have gradually launched their layout in the southwest region, involving upstream materials, battery production, research and development, and testing.

  At the meeting, the guests also discussed related topics such as "the impact of upstream material price fluctuations on the new energy vehicle market", "power battery capacity planning and layout", "power battery manufacturing process and equipment" and other related topics, clarifying ideas for the development of the industry, pointing out Direction of development.

  Group photo of guests


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