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Wait a minute, Tesla is not far from the official surrender

Publish Date: 2022.09.21

"Do you think it is a good time to start Model Y recently?"

"Wait a minute, Tesla is not far from lowering the price."

Not a fiction. Just last night, a college student who had not contacted for a long time suddenly sent a slightly abrupt greeting. His ultimate goal is to ask the question at the beginning of the article. As for the answer, what I have given is also very concise.


The arguments behind it are exactly what we want to highlight next. Before the real launch, what I want to tell you in advance is that in the past August, according to the data released by the Passenger Car Association, Tesla's total sales in China reached 76965 vehicles.

Among them, there are 42463 vehicles exported to overseas markets and 34502 vehicles for domestic retail. More terrifying, Model Y set a monthly delivery record of 62169 vehicles, with a month on month growth of 295% and a year-on-year growth of 261%, ranking first in the overall passenger vehicle sales in August.

At the same time, after a simple calculation, it is known that Tesla Shanghai Super Factory achieved sales of 399939 vehicles from January to August, which is only 80000 vehicles away from the annual delivery of 484130 vehicles in 2021. Among them, the total number of exports is nearly 160000, and domestic sales are more than 240000.


And we should know that the American auto company has shown such a strong performance just by relying on Model 3 and Model Y. The two models have grown into proper "blockbusters" in their respective market segments.

Taking this as the background, it is absolutely not a myth. In terms of the foresight of interior and exterior decoration design, the integration of electronic and electrical architecture, the progressiveness of assisted driving, as well as the comprehensive energy consumption, driving texture, energy supplement system, sales mode, and even the halo of the brand and founder, it must be acknowledged that there are indeed many praiseworthy places in model 3, model y and Tesla.

However, if we have to pick out some "flaws", we must have a long time to go. Due to the serious shortage of production capacity in China, Shanghai Super Factory has no ability to separate itself, and it often has a collection cycle of nearly half a year.


Especially in China's new energy market, which is becoming more and more involved, with the introduction of more and more independent brands and the expansion of competing products at the same level, it inevitably leads to the loss of some subscribers. Fortunately, with Tesla's efforts, the expansion of Model 3 and Model Y has been completed in stages.

Following the trend, it is not difficult to find that as of last night, the collection cycle of all domestic models of Tesla has been shortened to one week since the latest opening of its official Chinese website. For example, Model 3 rear wheel drive version is 1-8 weeks, Model 3 high-performance version is 1-10 weeks, Model Y rear wheel drive version is 1-4 weeks, Model Y long endurance version is 1-10 weeks, and Model Y high-performance version is 1-10 weeks.

In my eyes, this is just a "primer" that may be demoted. As for more clues, there is no doubt that Tesla suddenly announced recently that if the owners of all new, exhibition vehicles and non new Model 3 and Model Y delivered from September 16, 2022 to September 30, 2022 choose to purchase Tesla in store insurance, and the types of insurance include compulsory traffic insurance and vehicle damage insurance, they will be given an insurance subsidy of 8000 yuan.


In addition, just yesterday, according to the information on the environmental information disclosure platform of Shanghai enterprises and institutions, the second phase of the production line optimization project of Tesla Shanghai Super Factory (Phase I) was completed and commissioned on September 1, and the expected acceptance period is from September 1 to November 30.

It is understood that the total investment of the project is up to 1.2 billion yuan, of which 85 million yuan is invested in environmental protection, accounting for 7.08%. The actual commencement date was December 21 last year, and the expected completion date is April this year. However, the final completion date was postponed to September.

The current production line optimization project is Tesla's expansion in the existing factory, mainly through improving the production rhythm to expand the capacity. The EIA report released in November last year shows that the production line optimization projects are mainly the expansion of stamping workshop, body workshop, painting workshop, assembly workshop and logistics operation center.


According to Tesla's estimation, after the completion of the production line optimization project, 4000 employees will be added, and the number of employees in the factory will reach 19000. This production line optimization project further expands Tesla's production capacity in Shanghai Super Factory.

Moreover, according to the prediction of some previous research institutions, the upcoming fourth quarter, the global delivery of 500000 new cars, will be the goal of this American car company. Then, in this process, the Chinese market and the Shanghai factory undoubtedly need to provide sufficient awesome support.

Therefore, if it can be officially demoted, Tesla will certainly further harvest more potential users, adding a new fire to the already hot sales side.


To sum up, on the one hand, it is the use of free insurance to suddenly open disguised concessions; On the one hand, the production capacity has become more abundant, and the vehicle collection cycle has been greatly shortened; On the one hand, in order to hit higher targets, new stimulus points are urgently needed. All signs seem to imply that it may not be far from the node mentioned in the title of this article.

Of course, for Tesla, a star car company with high traffic and popularity, once it chooses the official demotion that has been missed for a long time this year, its crisis statement that "it can't be sold" will inevitably spread quickly from the outside world.

What I want to refute is, "It's really unnecessary to deceive yourself. Just listen to it as a joke. Instead of caring about this point, it's better to think carefully about whether Model Y or Model 3 will take the lead in the official demotion."


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