Big A is ushering in a 'spring', with solid-state battery concept stocks being particularly prominent.

　　On November 11th, Tianna Technology, Youyan New Materials, China Power, and Duofu Duo hit the limit up, while Funeng Oriental, Liyuanheng, Lianying Laser, and Blue Ocean Huateng rose more than 10%, and Rongbai Technology, Tianci Materials, Enjie Co., Ltd., Xingyuan Materials, and others rose more than 5%.

　　On November 12th, solid-state battery concept stocks continued to rise against the trend. It is reported that 13 individual stocks have seen an average increase of over 46% since September 18th, outperforming the overall market performance during the same period. Dongfeng Group's rebound was the most impressive, with a cumulative increase of nearly 68%. Stocks with average performance, such as Dell, Shida Shenghua, and Zhongzi Technology, have only seen a cumulative increase of less than 45% during this period.

　　On November 23rd, the concept of solid-state batteries continued to fluctuate and rise, with Jinlongyu, LeKai Film, SAIC Group, and Youyan New Materials hitting the daily limit up, while Blue Ocean Huateng, Liwang Shares, Xingyuan Materials, and others quickly followed suit.

　　The three-day continuous rise of solid-state battery concept stocks is not accidental. Behind the bullish trend in many stocks, several solid-state battery related companies have successively announced their production dates.

　　Passing through the process of 'drawing a cake to satisfy hunger', the production time gradually increases

　　The story of solid-state batteries has been told for many years, and the timeline for their mass production has also been announced for many years.

　　Why are the stock market and capital getting excited as we approach the end of 2024?

　　Firstly, the mass production time of most domestic solid-state battery enterprises is comparable to, or even slightly ahead of, foreign-funded enterprises such as Japan, South Korea, Europe, and America.

　　According to the comprehensive policies of various countries and public information from related enterprises, all solid state batteries will begin to be demonstrated for installation around 2027, and will enter the commercial application stage after 2030.

　　For Japanese and Korean companies, their solid-state battery industry is planning to commercialize all solid state batteries towards the goal of "getting on board around 2027 and achieving large-scale industrialization by 2030".

　　For example, in September this year, it was reported that Toyota, one of the earliest car manufacturers to start researching solid-state batteries, has obtained official approval from the Japanese government for its solid-state battery production plan and will officially start solid-state battery production in 2026. Its plan is to achieve an annual output of 9GWh after 2030.

　　According to the White Paper on the Development of Solid State Lithium Battery Technology released by Tailan New Energy, European car companies mainly collaborate with battery startups in the United States to develop all solid state battery technology.

　　In addition to the collaboration between Mercedes Benz and American startup battery company Factorial Energy to develop solid-state batteries mentioned above, Volkswagen Group also plans to independently produce solid-state batteries in Europe, with the goal of starting mass production between 2024 and 2025. BMW Group collaborates with Solid Power to develop solid-state batteries, with plans to launch them in 2025 and achieve mass production of solid-state battery models by 2030.

　　That is to say, the installation and application of solid-state batteries by European companies will be concentrated from 2026 to 2030.

　　According to industry insiders, the process of the solid-state battery industry at home and abroad is described as follows: "While there are already samples of solid-state batteries in China, non automotive specifications are still being installed abroad

　　This statement is true. Since 2024, the progress of the domestic solid-state battery industry has been particularly accelerated.

　　For example, since the second half of this year, leading domestic companies including CATL and BYD have successively revealed their progress and plans in the field of all solid state batteries.

　　Overall, 2026-2028 is the concentrated production period for solid-state batteries in domestic car companies. According to relevant car company plans, GAC Wubo and Dongfeng Motor will achieve mass production and installation of all solid state batteries during 2026, Changan New Energy Vehicles will gradually start producing all solid state batteries in 2027, and Dongfeng Motor plans to achieve mass production and launch of all solid state vehicle models in 2028.

　　The White Paper predicts that 2026-2028 is expected to become a centralized market window for domestic new energy vehicle all solid state batteries. At the same time, Chinese companies aim to achieve commercial production of all solid state batteries between 2027-2030.

　　Is the semi-solid technology route showing positive results? Or take the lead towards commercialization

　　Secondly, unlike most foreign manufacturers, many Chinese companies have added the concept of "semi-solid" in the field of solid-state battery research and development.

　　According to Pan Ruijun, Chief Engineer of Guoxuan High tech Solid State Battery Project, "Most of the solid-state battery products from domestic manufacturers are semi-solid. Many companies find it too difficult to achieve all solid state, so they go from liquid state batteries to semi-solid state batteries and see if they can achieve all solid state batteries

　　It is reported that according to the different electrolytes, batteries can be divided into four categories: liquid (25wt%), semi-solid (5-10wt%), quasi solid (0-5wt%), and all solid (0wt%). Among them, semi-solid state, quasi solid state, and all solid state batteries are collectively referred to as solid-state batteries, while all solid state batteries are the most advanced technological form of solid-state batteries.

　　It is reported that currently, Japanese and Korean companies mainly focus on the research direction of sulfide all solid state batteries. Except for LG, other companies have no clear layout plan in the field of semi-solid state batteries.

　　European and American companies have different routes for solid-state batteries, mainly emerging solid-state battery companies. In the field of semi-solid state batteries, currently only Quantum Scape, Factorial Energy, and 24M Technologies from the United States have clear layouts, while other companies mainly focus on the all solid state battery technology route.

　　Pan Ruijun said, "Semisolid state can almost be said to be a concept 'invented' by domestic battery manufacturers

　　So, is this concept good?

　　From a commercial perspective, there may be many positive aspects.

　　According to the White Paper, in recent years, driven by the new energy vehicle market, the global shipment of solid-state batteries has been continuously increasing. For example, the global shipment of solid-state batteries in 2023 is about 1GWh, but this is still mainly dominated by semi-solid state batteries.

　　That is to say, before the large-scale production of all solid state batteries, the gradual path of semi-solid state batteries will be the first to move towards commercialization.

　　Tailan New Energy predicts that due to the high materials and costs in the short term, some high-end or specific demand electric vehicle models in the automotive industry will accept a certain premium and be equipped with (semi) solid-state batteries. By 2030, the penetration rate of solid-state batteries in power batteries will reach 10%, mainly semi-solid batteries.

　　According to data from relevant institutions, the demand for semi-solid state batteries in the field of new energy vehicles in China in 2022 is 0.2 GWh, with a penetration rate of 0.1%. With the continuous development of semi-solid state battery technology and the increasing demand for new energy vehicles, it is expected that the demand for semi-solid state batteries will increase to 23.75 GWh by 2026, with a penetration rate close to 5%, showing a rapid growth momentum.

　　It is worth noting that 2024 is also considered the first year for the installation of semi-solid state batteries.

　　At present, car companies such as NIO, SAIC, and GAC have all released semi-solid battery solutions and partially implemented them for installation. According to statistics from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, since the beginning of 2024, the June installation volume of semi-solid state batteries in China has been 532.9 MWh, an increase of 10.4% compared to the previous month; The cumulative loading volume from January to June is 2154.7 MWh, and the supporting enterprise is Weilan New Energy.

　　Upstream raw material supply remains' tricky ', building an industrial chain will become an advantage

　　Finally, China's solid-state battery industry (including all solid and semi-solid) has a clear advantage over some foreign battery manufacturers, namely: supply chain advantage.

　　In the liquid state battery stage, power batteries face the problem of insufficient upstream raw material supply, leading to increased costs. At the stage of solid-state batteries, it seems that the plot of 'history is always astonishingly similar' repeats itself once again.

　　The White Paper shows that the development of solid-state batteries requires coordinated cooperation between the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, including the supply, manufacturing, and upgrading of solid-state electrolyte raw materials, as well as the structural design, technological upgrading, and industrialization of batteries.

　　However, it is worth noting that currently, the solid-state battery supply chain is facing the problem of unstable upstream raw material supply, and the production scale and capacity of upstream raw material suppliers are still unable to meet market demand.

　　For example, the number of production enterprises for solid electrolyte materials is relatively small and their production capacity is limited, resulting in unstable supply of raw materials and significant price fluctuations, posing great challenges to battery production and cost control.

　　Moreover, due to the incomplete supply of upstream raw materials for solid-state batteries, some of the solid-state electrolyte supply for current battery companies comes from self-developed and some from OEM, and the diverse routes of solid-state electrolytes make it difficult for upstream suppliers of solid-state electrolytes to complete supply chain construction in the short term.

　　In addition, the introduction of all solid state battery technology requires reshaping the existing lithium battery supply chain, which involves multiple links such as raw material procurement, production equipment updates, and manufacturing process improvements. Currently, some raw materials for all solid state batteries have not been mass-produced, and the supply chain is not yet perfect, increasing production uncertainty and risks.

　　It is worth noting that compared to domestic enterprises, Japanese companies seem to face more severe supply chain problems with solid-state batteries, which will also affect the large-scale commercialization process of solid-state batteries for Japanese companies.

　　Previously, regarding the news that Japanese companies will mass produce solid-state batteries in 2026, Pan Ruijun stated in a media group interview, "There will definitely be no problem with the 2026 market launch experiment, but mass production depends on the industry chain, but we have not seen any industry chain established

　　Because many raw materials and equipment need to be transported from China, based on their years of research and development, I believe the probability of vehicle testing in 2026 is relatively high. However, if there are no 'Chinese players' involved, it may be difficult to establish the industrial chain, "said Pan Ruijun.