Under the residual warmth of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the promotion of the Guangzhou Auto Show, as well as the stimulation of subsidy policies and promotional activities by car companies, the demand for car purchases has been further released, leading to a historic high in the car market in November.
Data shows that the retail sales of narrow passenger cars in the domestic market reached 2.424 million units in the current month, a year-on-year increase of 16.6% and a month on month increase of 7.2%; The cumulative sales volume for the first 11 months was 20.258 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
Among them, the growth momentum of the new energy vehicle market is particularly evident. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in November was 1.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.7%. At present, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 50% for five consecutive months, reaching 52.3% in November.
However, if further divided into new energy vehicles, the sales of plug-in hybrid models reached 389000 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 92.3%, with the largest growth rate; The sales volume of pure electric vehicles in November was 849000 units, a year-on-year increase of 49%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid in November was 239000 units, a year-on-year increase of 49% - these data seem to indicate that plug-in hybrid is the most popular technology route in the new energy market.
At the same time, when flipping through the sales ranking of domestic passenger car new force models, it can also be seen that models such as the Wenjie M7/M9 and the Ideal L7/L6 occupy the top four of the list, while only the Xiaomi SU7 and Jike 001 rank in the top ten for pure electric models, and most of the rest are range extender cars. This list seems to suggest that range extender is the optimal solution for the current new energy market.
Therefore, when comparing the market growth momentum with the sales base, electric vehicles that follow the pure electric technology route seem to be nothing more than plug-in hybrid and range extender electric vehicles that run on the back of the fuel tank.
In fact, this is also a perennial issue. Many people scoff at electric vehicles that run with their fuel tanks on their backs, saying they are not real electric vehicles. However, terminal sales reflect consumers' most basic and genuine consumption needs. Compared to pure electric models, they are more willing to purchase plug-in hybrid and extended range vehicles that run with the fuel tank on their back, as the latter is more in line with their driving needs.
Debate on Sales as a Technical Route
In recent years, there has been a hundred schools of thought and a hundred flowers blooming in the field of plug-in hybrid technology in China. Automobile companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, Geely, and Chery have all launched their own hybrid technologies, and with the support of these technologies, their models continue to erode the respective segmented markets of joint venture car companies, from A-class cars to B-class cars and then to C-Class cars, from sedans to SUVs to MPVs. Not so.
Therefore, many people consider 2022, when autonomous plug-in hybrid technology is widely implemented, as the "plug-in hybrid era".
During this year, new energy vehicle companies were still painting a grand blueprint for the future of pure electric vehicles, joint venture brands were advancing their electrification strategies step by step, while the plug-in hybrid market brought vitality to the market with its vigorous development. Data shows that the cumulative sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the domestic market reached 1.518 million units in 2022, a 1.5-fold increase from the previous year.
Subsequently, the growth momentum of plug-in hybrid models became increasingly evident, approaching the annual sales target of 3 million vehicles in 2023, with actual sales reaching an astonishing 2.804 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 84.7%. This growth trend not only confirms the market recognition of plug-in hybrid models, but also points out the direction for the phased development of the new energy vehicle market.
Therefore, new energy vehicle brands that have laid out in advance in the field of plug-in hybrid have shown good market performance. Especially with the continuous iteration and upgrading of plug-in hybrid technology, domestic car companies such as Geely and BYD have successively launched a new generation of plug-in hybrid technology, which has reached new heights in range and fuel consumption performance.
Among them, Geely's new generation Thunder electric hybrid platform is expected to have a maximum range of over 2000 kilometers when fully fueled and charged, with fuel consumption as low as 2 liters per 100 kilometers. This data undoubtedly makes "plug-in hybrid car range exceeding 2000 kilometers" a hot topic in the market. BYD has launched the fifth generation DMI hybrid technology, which also has excellent fuel consumption and range performance.
With the support of technology, many car companies have launched plug-in hybrid models that can dominate the market.
Taking BYD as an example, its models have harvested most of the segmented markets with the DM-i super hybrid system. The Dynasty series represented by BYD Qin PLUS DM-i, Song Pro DM-i, Han DM-i, and other models, as well as the Ocean Net models represented by Destroyer 05, Escort 07, and Sea Lion 05 DM-i, continue to compete for sales in major segmented markets.
With the support of numerous DM-i models, BYD sold 3.024 million new energy vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 62%. In that year, the total sales of plug-in hybrids in China were 2.8 million units, while BYD reached 1.438 million units, directly occupying 55% of the market share.
Major brands, including BYD, have achieved varying degrees of success in recent years, thanks to the support of plug-in hybrid technology. And their success has also transformed the plug-in hybrid market from a "transitional product" with low market share and not favored by consumers and the market a few years ago to a mainstream technology route recognized by consumers, and even seen as a phased direction for the development of new energy technology routes.
If the mainstream consumer market is dominated by plug-in hybrid cars, then the more high-end they go, the more consumers prefer extended range vehicles.
For example, in the mid to large SUV market priced at over 300000 yuan, Ideal and Wanjie have become the two giants of the market, which is beyond doubt. On the one hand, it is because the Ideal L6 and the WENJIE M7 have long occupied the top two sales positions in this market; On the other hand, it is because their series of models are highly competitive, with models like the Ideal L6/L7L8 even appearing in the top 10 of the list.
Sales are not deceiving, the best-selling mid to large sized SUVs are plug-in hybrid (including extended range) vehicles with fuel tanks on their backs. Especially after the price range breaks through 300000 yuan, the higher the price, the harder it is to sell pure electric vehicles, especially pure electric SUVs. Based on this, industry insiders constantly lament, "Is it really a dead end to making pure electric SUVs worth over 300000 yuan at this stage
Overall, due to the popularity of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the mainstream market and the largest growth in the new energy market, as well as the persistence of extended range vehicles in the high-end new energy vehicle market, there were few pure electric models in the sales ranking of new force passenger car models in China in the first month Under the joint efforts of multiple parties, pure electric, plug-in hybrid and range extender are moving towards a situation where they are divided into three parts.
With sales support, plug-in and extended programming no longer need to prove how advanced the technology route is.
From being questioned to being affirmed, in the years of inserting and adding programs, one cannot help but think of 210 years ago when Napoleon led the island of Elba to counterattack Paris. In just a few days, the editor of a newspaper changed his name to Napoleon six times - the monster Corsica landed in the port of Rouen; The cannibalistic demon king advances towards Glass; The usurper entered Grenoble; Napoleon occupied Lyon; Napoleon approached Fontainebleau; Your Majesty will arrive in his faithful Paris today
If you are strong, there will be great scholars to argue for you.
Who knows the future
With sales as a justification for the technology roadmap, there has been much less discussion in the market about who is the optimal solution for the new energy technology roadmap. Simply put, the main reasons why plug-in hybrid range extender is accepted are its energy-saving, emission reducing, economic, long endurance, and energy replenishment advantages.
This involves the demand of consumer terminals.
Because in the past few years of the outbreak of new energy vehicles, with the rapid growth of the number of new energy vehicles, the problems of range anxiety and energy replenishment anxiety of pure electric vehicles have become increasingly prominent. These issues are mainly reflected in range anxiety and energy replenishment anxiety. Among them, the former is due to insufficient range leading to a short travel radius, while the latter is due to insufficient number of charging poles and long charging time
These issues will become more prominent during holidays and weekends, causing consumers to have significant concerns when choosing pure electric vehicles despite the increasing acceptance of new energy vehicles. Even with the advancement of battery technology and the improvement of charging facilities, these concerns have not been effectively alleviated.
Take the range as an example. With the continuous advancement of battery technology, the range of pure electric vehicles is getting higher and higher, and some can even reach 800 kilometers. However, many of the data in them are measured by the official in the laboratory, and there are official standard range and actual range. At the same time, the range will also be greatly reduced due to the influence of temperature and driving scenarios.
Especially the impact of temperature on battery life. In northern regions, the range of electric vehicles has significantly decreased. Related experiments have shown that when the outdoor temperature reaches minus 6 degrees Celsius, the average range of most electric vehicles decreases by 40%, which obviously cannot meet the daily driving needs of consumers. This is also why the further north we go in winter, the lower the visibility of pure electric vehicles.
In contrast, current plug-in hybrid vehicles commonly use a combination of "small battery and large fuel tank". Although frequent use of hybrid mode may not have a significant effect on fuel saving and emission reduction, range anxiety and energy replenishment anxiety have been greatly alleviated. Extended range vehicles, on the other hand, extend the range of the vehicle by coordinating the engine and generator to meet the needs of consumers.
In addition, plug-in hybrid vehicles (including extended range) also received policy benefits such as unrestricted driving, no purchase tax, and subsidies in cities with restricted driving and purchase restrictions in the early stages Under the guidance of product and policy levels, plug-in hybrid vehicles have experienced rapid development.
Among them, the program extender, which has been criticized for its lack of advanced technology, has also been promoted by the ideal and questioning circles.
On one hand, the extended range hybrid system eliminates range anxiety and frees up driving radius; On one side, it is equipped with a large battery, and urban travel is basically no different from pure electric vehicles. This type of car is more fuel-efficient than gasoline powered cars and does not have the range anxiety of pure electric cars, which just hits the demand for car use among Chinese consumers. At the same time, coupled with a prestigious refrigerator, TV, and sofa, it highlights a commitment to home use.
Under the drag of demand, the sales of plug-in hybrid and extended range vehicles increased by 65.8% and 174% respectively year-on-year last year, while the sales growth of pure electric vehicles was only 24.4%. This trend indicates that consumers are more inclined to choose models that can solve the problems of range and energy replenishment, rather than just pursuing pure electric vehicles with zero emissions.
However, just as the thermal efficiency of internal combustion engines is almost being squeezed to its limit, considering factors such as weight, the battery capacity of plug-in hybrid vehicles cannot continue to increase. Therefore, what many car models can sustain a range of over 2000 kilometers is to increase the fuel tank capacity while upgrading the three electric technology - when the technology reaches its limit, whoever has a larger fuel tank can run further.
To truly change this situation, we need to wait until solid-state batteries are mass-produced and installed. Before the latter fully arrives, electric vehicles with fuel tanks still have stronger competitiveness.
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