NIO's electric vehicle battery swapping model has been operating in the market for several years, and companies such as GAC Aion, Geely, Changan, and CATL have also proposed providing battery swapping services for electric vehicles. Any business operation or product requires an accurate business case analysis. The author has done this work and shares the results with everyone.

Electric vehicle battery swapping

图1蔚来汽车换电站

Replacing the battery only takes a few minutes, and a self check is performed each time to ensure the safety of the battery pack and the entire vehicle. Business case (net present value) and sensitivity analysis of electric vehicle battery swapping mode ● Input materials for business case analysis: ● Assuming a total of 3370 battery swapping stations ● Average income of 100 yuan per swapping station ● Investment of 3.5 million yuan per swapping station ● One time development cost of 20 million yuan for the swapping station system ● 150 battery swapping times per day as the base, ● One staff on duty at the swapping station, 2X12 hour shifts, 365 days a year, using the full cost method. The cumulative net present value (NPV) from 2025 to 2030 is calculated to be 1.231 billion yuan (see Figure 2 "dark blue curve"), which is a good business case.

图2 电动汽车换电模式的商务案例（净现值）和敏感度分析（源：作者刘晓毅博士）

The factor that has the greatest impact on net present value is the number of daily power changes at each exchange station. The author conducted a sensitivity analysis and the results are as follows: If each exchange station only exchanges power 75 times a day, the cumulative net present value decreases to 109 million yuan (see Figure 2 "Red Curve"); If each power exchange station only exchanges electricity 50 times a day, the cumulative net present value will decrease to negative 265 million yuan (see Figure 2 "Green Curve");

Analysis of daily battery replacement frequency for each battery swapping station:

Electric vehicle customers often use the battery swapping mode when the battery pack of the electric vehicle enters the later stage of its usage cycle (charging can only reach 80% full charge), and the number of times each swapping station exchanges electricity per day directly affects the economy of the electric vehicle swapping mode; With the further development of new energy vehicles in China in the next five years, the modularization and standardization of the mechanical, electrical, and electronic interfaces of battery packs by various car companies will promote the continuous increase in the number of daily battery replacements at each battery swapping station. By monitoring the battery pack with each battery change, the safety of electric vehicle driving has been improved; In addition, it also provides a reliable foundation for the orderly recycling of electric vehicle battery packs. Summarizing the power change mode of electric vehicles can be regarded as a business model. The most critical factor is the number of power changes per day in each power exchange station. If many car enterprises can unify modular and standardized ways and interfaces for battery packs, it can better promote the economy of this business model and pave the way for orderly recycling of battery packs.