After great achievements have been made in the development of domestic new energy industry, how will the domestic new energy automobile industry develop in the next 15 years? Authorities recently gave an authoritative answer. The General Office of the State Council has issued the Development Plan for the New Energy Automobile Industry (2021-2035).

        As an action program for the domestic new energy industry in the next 15 years, the Plan gives development ideas and some hard targets in infrastructure, technology, market and other dimensions. Among them, the Plan puts forward in the development vision that after 15 years of continuous efforts, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles. By 2025, the average power consumption of new pure electric passenger vehicles will be reduced to 12.0 KWH / 100 km, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach the target of about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles.

       In view of the above objectives, the industry generally believe that the final version of the "planning" compared to the previous draft for comments on the target has been reduced, giving the market more space for development. As for the proportion of sales of new energy vehicles, practitioners of oems believe that, referring to the actual market situation, there is a big gap between the expected production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2025, presenting both opportunities and challenges.

We will make the industry bigger and stronger

        According to statistics, the domestic new energy market has ranked first in the world in terms of production, sales and ownership for five consecutive years, and has become one of the important forces for the development and transformation of the world's automobile industry.

       However, the development of new energy vehicles in China is also confronted with such problems as weak core technology innovation ability, incomplete quality assurance system, lagging infrastructure construction, incomplete industrial ecology and increasingly intensified market competition. In order to promote the high-quality development of new energy automobile industry and accelerate the construction of automobile power, the State Council finally formulated and published the Plan.

       There are five strategic tasks in the plan: improving technological innovation capacity, building a new industrial ecosystem, promoting integrated industrial development, promoting integrated industrial development, improving infrastructure system and deepening openness and cooperation.

       Among them, in terms of technological innovation, the Plan indicates that the "three vertical and three horizontal" research and development layout will be deepened, with pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (including expanded program) and fuel cell vehicles as the "three vertical" to lay out the technological innovation chain for whole vehicles. With the power battery and management system, drive motor and power electronics, network and intelligent technology as the "three horizontal", the key component technology supply system is constructed.

        From the perspective of technology, the development of pure electric drive is still the core development direction. The plan puts forward that after 15 years of continuous efforts, the core technology of China's new energy vehicles will reach the international advanced level, and the quality brand will have strong international competitiveness. Pure electric vehicles become the mainstream of new vehicles sold, the public sector overall electric car, the commercial application of fuel cell vehicles, highly automated driving car to achieve large-scale application, fill in electric network is convenient and efficient service, hydrogen fuel supply system progressed steadily, effectively promote energy conservation and emissions reduction level and to promote the efficiency of social operation.

      However, the category of low-fuel consumption passenger vehicles proposed in the "double-point" New Deal to be implemented in 2021, as well as energy-saving vehicles and hybrid technologies that have attracted much attention in the new version of "New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap", do not appear in the Plan.

        "Fuel-efficient vehicles are mainly hybrid vehicles, which in essence belong to the category of fuel vehicles. From the perspective of the Plan, pure electric vehicles are the main development direction, and energy-saving vehicles should not have significant policy support in the future. The whole idea is to use double points to push back and promote the new energy market." The personage inside course of study says.

New energy sales will account for 20% in 2025

         In addition to adhere to the pure electric line, "planning" is put forward in 2025, pure electric passenger car on average power consumption down to 12.0 KWH/hundred kilometers, new energy vehicles new car sales reached about 20% of the total sales of the new vehicles and realization of automatic driving highly limited area and commercial application of a particular scene, purging significantly higher electricity service convenience etc.

        Compared with the previously published draft, final version "planning" will be the new energy vehicles new car sales volume occupies the proportion of total sales of the new vehicles by 25% to 20%, pure electric passenger car average power consumption by the original 11 KWH/hundred kilometers up to 12.0 KWH/hundred kilometers, in addition, the draft of "the average new passenger car fuel consumption down to 4.0 L / 100 km" goals are also deleted.

       Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Federation, believes that the final version of the "planning" industry goals pragmatic, power consumption targets also provide development space for all types of vehicles. "The 20 per cent target is more robust than the 25 per cent level in the draft, especially in the post-July downturn, and more robust consideration is needed for future targets, but Personally I think the 20 per cent target will definitely be achieved and the 25 per cent target is promising."

       "One degree of improvement over the 11 KWH / 100 km in the draft is of great significance. It encourages the development of high-end new energy. The overall new energy industry, which cannot simply use electricity consumption index to constrain the initial development, has performed well independently at present and should be given more space for development."

        "The target of average fuel consumption of new passenger cars has been deleted, which is also in line with the objective reality of fuel consumption development. At present, the fuel consumption of traditional vehicles is reduced slowly, and the dependence on new energy is increased. However, it is difficult to achieve the 4.0L/100km in the case of new energy scale of 20% under WLTP's working condition. "Cui dongshu said.

        However, some industry practitioners believe that although the target of 20% of new energy sales volume has been lowered, the actual market gap is still very large. Although there will be huge market opportunities, it also means that it is challenging to achieve this target.

        "In 2019, the new energy car sales accounted for about 4.68% in real terms, from January to September sales data, new energy automobile sales accounted for about 4.3%, according to the auto industry association annual production volume 4% decline in 2020, the latest forecast, annual sales of about 24.7 million, 2020, in September 1 - sales accounted for calculation, the total size for new energy vehicle sales this year to 1.06 million vehicles."

         "Based on the previous estimates of the market size of about 35 million in 2025, the sales volume of new energy accounts for 20%, and the annual sales volume of the market is about 7 million. Compared with the current figure of just over 1 million, the sales volume of new energy needs to be increased by nearly 6 million. It can be seen that this goal is very ambitious, and the challenge is certainly great."