Vehicle research and development, manufacturing, channel building, financing capabilities, and brand marketing are like a series of "hard thresholds" that keep them out of the industry.

    "Xiaomi is really going to build a car?"

    Last week, the discussion on this topic in the car circle was once again in full swing. The reason is very simple. Judging from the current share of the smart phone industry, in the face of Apple, Huawei, and Samsung, although Xiaomi has performed well, it is still rapidly becoming saturated. Therefore, it has become the general trend to find a new "outlet" to share the pressure, and "coming into the game to build a car" has become a new answer given by Lei Jun.

    On February 19th, Beijing time, according to "LatePost"  learned from multiple sources, the former has determined to build a car and regards it as a strategic decision, but the specific form and path have not yet been determined, and there may still be variables. And some people familiar with the matter said that Xiaomi's car may be led by Lei Jun, the founder of Xiaomi Group.

    As soon as the news came out, its stock price quickly turned from decline to rise, and the highest intraday increase reached 12%. Subsequently, Xiaomi officially responded to related matters, "Wait and see, there is no such thing for the time being." There is no denial, nor acknowledgement. Behind the vague but slightly ambiguous attitude, it seems like the possibility that this matter will finally land. Pushed to the highest level.

    However, just as most people feel that choosing to build a car at this moment is very likely to promote Xiaomi's faster qualitative change. As a bystander, I am opposed to it. Because past experience always warns us that the more seemingly beautiful things are behind, the more they are full of crises and challenges.

    At present, the new energy track with limited capacity is already overcrowded. In fact, just a few hours before Xiaomi was blasted into building a car, Qichacha published a research report on "Registration of Companies Related to New Energy Vehicles in 2020".

    Data shows that there are currently 232,000 new energy vehicle-related companies in my country. In 2020, 78,600 new companies were registered, a year-on-year increase of 70.8%, of which 27,000 were newly added in the fourth quarter. In terms of regional distribution, Guangdong Province currently ranks first with 26,000 companies, and Shandong and Jiangsu rank second and third. In addition, 45% of enterprises in the industry have registered capital higher than 5 million.

而从近十年的行业发展来看，2014年开始新能源行业进入高速发展期，企业注册量同比增长了105.0%。2016年新注册企业超过2万家，随后几年更是突飞猛进。2018年的注册量首次超过了4万家，2020年注册量再创新高，达到7.86万家，同比增长了70.8%。

换言之，过去一年，虽然我们经历了新能源细分市场的“洗牌”，但是随着大盘整体的止跌、复苏、向上，已经有越来越多的新玩家涌入。作为参考，单季度企业注册量层面，2020年Q1注册量为0.8万家。

    Time went by to Q2, the number of registrations was 20,000, an increase of 122.2% from the previous month, the number of registrations in Q3 was 23,000, an increase of 15%, and the number of registrations in Q4 was 27,000, an increase of 17.4%. Overall, except for a slight decline in Q1, the other three quarters showed an upward trend.

    “Most of the gross profit of Xiaomi products is not higher than 5%.” Many years ago, Lei Jun was able to lead Xiaomi to break through many foreign brands in the nascent smartphone industry by adhering to the route of extreme cost-effectiveness. But now, even if the former is really determined to enter the game and build cars, the situation and competitive pressures they have to face must be dozens of times more than they once were.

    Vehicle research and development, manufacturing, channel building, financing capabilities, and brand marketing are like a series of "hard thresholds" that keep them out of the industry. Similarly, there are also "outsiders" such as Apple, Baidu, and Foxconn who have already entered the game.