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New cars are intensively "enclosing land and building factories", starting a new round of production capacity war?

Publish Date: 2021.06.17

  After crossing the life-and-death line, the new car has opened a new round of production capacity war.


  In just a few months, Xiaopeng Motors first announced the signing of the Wuhan manufacturing base, and then the Xinqiao Intelligent Electric Vehicle Industrial Park jointly planned by Weilai Automobile and Hefei City also officially started. On May 28, Future Auto Daily reported exclusively that Ideal Auto will take over the first plant of Beijing Hyundai.


  Behind the expansion of production capacity is the ambition of the new forces to increase production capacity to prepare for future incremental space. "In 2030, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 90%." On June 12, at the China Automotive Chongqing Forum, Li Bin, the founder and chairman of Weilai Automobile, said bluntly that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased beyond imagination.


  The considerable market prospects in the future continue to promote automakers to accelerate their efforts to seize the heights of this scale war.


  "Soldiers and horses go ahead before the grain and grass"


  In 2020, as the market value of "Wei Xiaoli" continues to rise, the delivery volume will also occupy the top camp. Under the star effect, they have received financial support and let them begin to pave the way for future sales.


  On June 10, Li Bin stated at the 13th China Automotive Blue Book Forum that the second plant of Weilai Automobile in Hefei Xinqiao Intelligent Electric Vehicle Industrial Park has started construction and is expected to start production in the third quarter of next year. Xinqiao Intelligent Electric Vehicle Industrial Park has an initial investment of 50 billion yuan, and the planned annual production capacity of complete vehicles can reach 1 million.


  Source: NIO


  As of May 31, Weilai has delivered a total of 109,514 vehicles. This number will continue to grow rapidly in June. According to the plan, Weilai's delivery guidance for the second quarter will remain unchanged at 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles.


  In 2021, Weilai plans to add 20 Weilai centers and 120 Weilai spaces, which means that the total number of Weilai stores this year will reach 366. Li Bin said that Weilai’s basic strategy is that in cities where there are Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi 4S stores, “we will all go to build an offline store.”


  Xiaopeng has successively launched multiple factory projects. According to the public announcement of the project of Xiaopeng Automobile's Wuhan Industrial Base, the manufacturing base covers an area of ​​about 1,100 acres and the planned annual production capacity of the whole vehicle project is 100,000 vehicles. It will be the third production base of Xiaopeng Automobile after Zhaoqing, Guangdong and Guangzhou, Guangdong. Xiaopeng Motors will have an annual production capacity of more than 300,000 vehicles.


  From the perspective of the current delivery volume of Xiaopeng Motors, the annual production capacity of 300,000 vehicles may be overcapacity. However, Xiaopeng Motors said that Xiaopeng Motors launched the Wuhan Intelligent Manufacturing Base project to meet the demand for production capacity after 2023. .


  In contrast, the ideal car's factory construction is much more cautious. In addition to the establishment of its own manufacturing base in Changzhou at the beginning of its establishment, it was not until this year that the news of the layout of a new factory came out.


  According to the plan, the new workshop of the Changzhou plant is expected to be completed in 2022, and the annual production capacity will be increased to 200,000 vehicles. However, this number is still far behind the ideal car’s plan to achieve cumulative sales of 1.6 million vehicles by 2025. Looking for new factories to increase production capacity will undoubtedly become a new proposition for ideal cars.


  The staff of Beijing Hyundai's No. 1 Factory stated that the handover with the ideal car will be realized by the end of this year at the latest. A screenshot provided by an interviewee to Future Auto Daily shows that the ideal car project in Shunyi will be put into production in 2023.


  On May 25, after the official launch of the 2021 Ideal ONE, although Ideal has suffered a reputational crisis from many old car owners, Goldman Sachs analysts are very optimistic about the prospects of Ideal ONE. "The market share of Ideal ONE will increase significantly in the next five years. , The annual sales volume will increase to 580,000 vehicles in 2025."


  In fact, not only the head of the new car, but almost everyone is preparing for it. At present, Nezha Automobile’s Tongxiang plant is stepping up production, and the Yichun plant is also under construction. The plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of this year, when Nezha’s annual production capacity will reach 150,000 vehicles. On June 11, the Changsha plant of Skyrim Motors also officially started production.


  The battle between efficiency and scale


  For the winning new forces, passing through the delivery barrier and the key node of listing, expanding production capacity has become a new match point for increasing its market share and achieving profitability through scale as soon as possible.


  According to the China Automobile Association data, although the share of new energy vehicles in 2020 is less than 6%, in the past May, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 217,000, exceeding the monthly total sales of more than 10%. In the case of stagnant growth in the auto industry and severe overcapacity of fuel vehicles, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is much faster than imagined.


  It is not only new cars that are preparing for the future. In the past two years, multinational car companies including Volkswagen and Audi have also built factories. Car companies such as Great Wall, Guangzhou Automobile and Geely are also expanding new energy vehicle production capacity. Take the Shanghai New Energy Automobile Plant of Shanghai Volkswagen as an example. The single-seater plant has a planned annual production capacity of 300,000 vehicles, far exceeding the volume of a new car with a thin body.


  For new cars, time has to be stepped up to collect grain to meet.


  More importantly, as an industry that pursues economies of scale, auto companies can maximize profits only by expanding the scale of sales and diluting operating costs. At present, the new power car companies are still unable to achieve food and clothing, and profitability is still the top priority.


  In this regard, He Xiaopeng once said that no car company can clearly say that it has won the first move. "We are all in the qualifying rounds and have not yet reached the knockout table."


  Take Weilai as an example. Although it has delivered more than 100,000 vehicles and is firmly in the top spot in the new car camp, according to the first quarter financial report, the positive gross profit margin still cannot conceal the company's overall loss. In addition, Xiaopeng Motors and Ideal Motors also failed to achieve self-made blood. The three Wei Xiaoli brothers had net losses of 450 million, 780 million, and 360 million respectively in the first quarter.


  Insufficient scale seems to be the biggest constraint for new cars. Guosen Securities once stated in a research report that in order to achieve profitability, the sales volume of "Wei Xiaoli" needs to reach 180,000, 60,000, and 120,000 respectively.


  Even Tesla still needs to continuously expand its production capacity to maximize profits. Tesla declared its mission to "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy", which allowed Tesla to boost sales by improving efficiency and continuously reducing prices. Musk has said that Tesla will sell 20 million cars annually by 2030. According to the current production capacity of just over one million, it can only be expanded through the establishment of a factory.


  For new power car companies, only by continuously increasing production and sales can they avoid the embarrassment of getting up early and catching up late. However, unlike Tesla, from the perspective of corporate positioning, new domestic auto companies have different development paths.


  Wei Lai adopted the strategy of pushing high from the beginning. Li Bin publicly stated that he would do "BBA" on more than one occasion. Even if the price of Tesla Model 3 continues to drop, he still said that "We have no room for price cuts." . Li Bin once revealed that Weilai’s average selling price reached 434,700, which is higher than the average selling price of BMW and Audi. “A high-end brand has been initially established.”


  According to the Shanghai Insurance data released by the China Automobile Center in April, the market share of the Weilai brand pure electric SUV reached 23%, and Tesla ranked second with a market share of 17%. This means that NIO has already formed a certain degree of influence in market segments.


  Xiaopeng G3 Source: Xiaopeng Motors


  In contrast, Xiaopeng Motors first aimed at the mass market. At the beginning of its first model, the Xiaopeng G3, it has gradually gained a foothold in the market with a subsidized price of less than 150,000 yuan. With the launch of Xiaopeng P7, it began to gradually increase the price of its models. He Xiaopeng revealed that the average delivery price of Xiaopeng Motors has exceeded 250,000 yuan.


  In fact, whether it is Weilai or Xiaopeng, under the trend that electrification has become a trend, traditional car companies have long awakened, opponents have already covered the entire track, and the first-mover advantage once established is inevitably diluted.


  "Many traditional car companies are not lacking in competitiveness in developing electric cars. Electric cars can be replicated on the existing fuel car sequence." Auto industry analyst Ling Ran told Future Auto Daily. For new power car companies, traditional cars The real scary thing about the giants is the huge scale effect. "Once traditional car companies realize the popularization of electric vehicles, the so-called corner overtaking of some new power car companies will no longer exist.

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