The chip crisis has become the biggest "gray rhino" in the auto market this year.

　　With the global chip shortage getting worse, the automobile industry chain and value chain have also triggered a series of knock-on effects. The most significant impact on the consumer side is the slow pickup of new cars caused by insufficient production capacity of new cars, and the general price increase and soaring popularity of the second-hand car market.

　　Especially in the context of insufficient supply of new cars, the second-hand car market has become more and more popular. Based on the relatively strong consumption demand, more car buyers have begun to turn their attention to second-hand cars.

　　The Manheim Index, which is used to measure the trend of used car prices, shows that the U.S. used car price index has continued to soar this year, and after September it set the highest monthly increase since April. In the Chinese market, the second-hand car business is also showing a lively scene. The second-hand prices of those best-selling models have generally risen, and dealers even recycle used cars at the original price.

　　Under such a macro-market environment, the residual value of automobiles in the used car field, which is the "residual value rate" that the industry talks about, is once again being valued by everyone. Automobiles are large parts used by consumers for a long time, and those models with a higher residual value rate are naturally more popular in the second-hand car market.

　　At present, the hedging rate algorithm is calculated by dividing the price of the used car by the guide price of the new car. The greater the discount for the new car, the lower the hedging rate. In fact, such an algorithm cannot directly reflect the true value retention rate of a car. Behind the "value retention rate", there are misunderstandings and prejudices that have been hidden in the industry.

　　The misunderstood "pre-owned car value retention rate"

　　The value retention rate is an important data for consumers as a reference for car purchase. Those models with high value retention rate are more likely to become "sweet steamed buns" in the used car market. Because of this, whether it is at the market level or the consumer level, the level of used car value retention has become a key indicator that directly affects consumer decision-making.

　　Hedging rate, there is a conventional formula for calculating.

　　For a long time, in order to ensure the uniformity of the value preservation rate, many evaluation agencies are accustomed to using the method of "used car price ÷ new car official guide price". However, this calculation method has its limitations.

　　Why do you say that?

　　Due to the need for additional configuration and other reasons for some brands, the market terminal transaction price is often higher than the official guide price. As a result, its high value retention rate is not an objective and true reflection. Conversely, some models have a discount from the official launch to the terminal. The time interval is actually very short. Considering the complexity of the discount price, it is unavoidable to copy the above formula to be unfair.

　　In a word, the manufacturer’s guide price is not the true value of the new car. The terminal price of the new car is the reflection of the true value of the new car. The value preservation rate should be calculated based on the terminal price of the new car. So, what is the correct algorithm for the hedging rate?

　　Hedging rate = second-hand car price ÷ new car terminal transaction price.

　　Let's use data as an example:

　　Car A, the official guide price is 200,000 yuan, the terminal transaction price is 160,000 yuan, and the second-hand car price is 100,000 yuan; for car B, the official guide price is also 200,000 yuan, and the owner’s terminal transaction price is 180,000 yuan, and the second-hand car price It is 100,000 yuan. According to the traditional calculation formula, the loss rate of both vehicles is 50%.

　　Actually, the damage of car B is obviously higher than that of car A.

　　According to a reasonable calculation method, the value retention rate of car A is actually about 60%, and the value retention rate of car B can reach about 55%.

　　To open up the truth, the Germans do not lose to the Japanese

　　There is a phenomenon that is worthy of our attention.

　　For a long time, Japanese cars have been ranked high on many value-preservation rate lists, and the value-preservation rate of many hot-selling models has been higher than that of German and American competitors of the same level.

　　The reason is mainly because Japanese manufacturers have low guide prices and low discounts. Based on manufacturer guide prices, the value retention rate is higher. On the contrary, German cars have high guide prices and high discounts. If they are also calculated according to the manufacturer's guide prices, the final calculated value retention rate is often lower.

　　Because of this, the hedging rate should be calculated based on the terminal transaction price, which is more reasonable. According to the real value retention rate algorithm, the value retention rate of German models has increased significantly. The gap in value retention rates of many Japanese cars and German models will be significantly reduced, or even remain unchanged, and the value retention rate of Japanese cars will no longer be high.

　　The editor of "Auto Commune" also recently visited several car dealers in Shanghai and Guangzhou. These intensive first-line sales generally reported that if the calculation is based on a more reasonable hedging rate algorithm, that is, "used car price ÷ new car transaction price" , Volkswagen, especially FAW-Volkswagen’s second-hand car value retention rate has been relatively stable, and the value retention rate is also higher.

　　A dealer manager told the editor of Automobile Commune that, taking the same level of FAW-Volkswagen Bora and Dongfeng Nissan Sylphy as examples, both cars are hot products in the second-hand car market, and the official guide price is almost always 10 Between 10,000 yuan and 150,000 yuan. "The Bora currently has a maximum profit of 40,000 yuan and Sylphy's 20,000 yuan. If you follow the real value-preservation rate algorithm, the used car value retention rate of the two cars is actually the same."

　　Why is FAW-Volkswagen remarkable in the field of value preservation?

　　On the one hand, thanks to the excellent product value of the German cars themselves, as well as the "high guide price and high discount" feature introduced above, calculated according to the manufacturer's guide price, the final calculated value preservation rate naturally ranks among the best.

　　On the other hand, it has something to do with FAW-Volkswagen’s forward-looking deployment. Since last year, FAW-Volkswagen has launched a "price value strategy", centered on users, according to the rhythm of the product life cycle, enriched product equipment, enhanced product value and value preservation rate by increasing users' high-demand and high-value equipment.

　　FAW-Volkswagen insiders told the "Auto Commune" that since the launch of the "Price Value Strategy", all new models released last year until now have comprehensively enhanced product value and hard-core strength in accordance with the new strategy, including the Golf family and the CC family. New cars such as, Lanjing, and Sagitar's 2021 upgrade have all made new breakthroughs in the field of value retention.

　　A long-term salesperson engaged in second-hand car transactions in the Yangtze River Delta region said that FAW-Volkswagen's second-hand car value retention rate has been outstanding in recent years, especially since last year, the value retention rate of many models is even more remarkable. "Many of the second-hand cars of about three years can maintain a value preservation rate of about 7.5 to 20%. If you compare the results horizontally, it is already very good."

　　It is worth mentioning that since FAW-Volkswagen returned to the domestic sales champion, its sales base and market leadership advantages have become more apparent. Coupled with the continuous increase in the value preservation rate of its heavyweight models such as the Golf family, Lanjing, and Sagitar, its dominance is also increasing day by day, whether in the new car market or the used car market.

　　From a higher perspective, abandoning the misunderstandings and prejudices caused by traditional algorithms, under a more scientific computing system, the most beneficial ones are actually consumers and more major market participants.