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Japan's auto market will again experience negative growth

Publish Date: 2021.11.11

  Although the Japanese government completely lifted the epidemic emergency on September 30, and the October epidemic did improve rapidly, the shortage of chips and the interruption of the supply chain caused a heavy blow to the Japanese auto industry, and the economy suffered huge losses due to the epidemic. , Therefore, the country’s auto market sales continued to decline sharply in October.


  According to data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association JADA, Japanese light vehicle sales in October fell 31.3% year-on-year to 279,341 units (including mini vehicles).


  This is the third-lowest monthly performance in the Japanese auto market in recent years, only higher than the 270,398 in April last year and 218,285 in May. It is also the first time in recent years that sales fell below 300,000 in the same period, even lower than in October 2010. 304,328 vehicles due to the expiration of government subsidies. Excluding mini-cars, sales fell 30.2% year-on-year to 176,743 units, which the agency said was the lowest level since 1968 for the same period.


  After four consecutive months of declines, especially after falling 32.3% and 31.3% in September and October respectively, the total sales of light vehicles in Japan in the first 10 months of this year have turned from a positive year-on-year decline to a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, closing at only 3,759,443 units. .


  Considering that a total of 4.599 million vehicles were sold throughout the year last year, and 84 million vehicles will be sold in the last two months of this year, it is basically impossible to achieve this. Therefore, there is a high probability that the Japanese auto market will experience negative growth again this year. It will be the third consecutive year that the country's auto market has fallen.


  Looking back at the data in October, the performance of the major brands can be described as terrible. Only Mitsubishi and Hino in the top 10 sales are positive year-on-year. Even if the line of sight is expanded to the top 20 in sales, only UD Trucks has a positive year-on-year.


  In fact, even if Mitsubishi has achieved double-digit growth in the sluggish auto market for the third consecutive month, since its sales volume is only more than 5,000 vehicles, its impact on the entire market is minimal. Hino's slight increase of 1.6% is completely negligible.


  From the perspective of brands with negative growth, Toyota, the big brother in the Japanese market, has fallen more than the overall market for the second consecutive month, and its sales volume has also been below 100,000 for the second consecutive month.


  Behind this is that its best-selling Camry, Raize, Alphard, Camry, Crown and Rommy models have all seen a significant decrease, and the first three have fallen by more than 50%. However, even so, because sales are still far ahead of other models, Toyota Yaris, Aqua, Corolla and Roomy are still the top four Japanese regular models in October sales.


  After such continuous sharp declines, the cumulative year-on-year increase in the first 10 months of this year has narrowed to 0.3%. Although Toyota's official website stated that in November, global production is expected to reach 850,000 to 900,000, which is more than 830,000 in the same period last year. However, in view of the current shortage of global chip supply, Toyota's current high probability cannot be achieved. Therefore, it is difficult for Toyota's sales in Japan to maintain positive growth this year.


  In contrast, Suzuki, Honda, and Nissan seem to have better resistance, especially Nissan is the only brand in the top 10 with a single-digit decline in sales. However, this is more due to only 34,998 units sold in the same period last year. In fact, after five consecutive months of decline, Nissan’s cumulative year-on-year decline has also fallen slightly this year by 0.2%. A similar situation also happened to Suzuki. Unlike Nissan, Suzuki's cumulative year-on-year decline has directly become 1.8% due to a large decline in October.


  Daihatsu, which belongs to the same group as Toyota, has suffered the most serious losses among the main selling brands. Its sales have been declining since June, reaching 32,000 units in October, and its ranking has also fallen from the top three in the past to fifth. It is only natural that total sales have turned negative year-on-year.


  After the cumulative losses of Suzuki, Nissan and Daihatsu have turned negative year-on-year, four of the top five in the Japanese auto market have shown a decline. As for the only remaining Toyota, it should also follow their footsteps in November. Coupled with Mazda, which has already fallen into a decline, the six major brands that sold more than 10,000 in the Japanese auto market will be wiped out. Therefore, it is reasonable for the Japanese market to fall again this year.

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