In the first month of the year, the sales volume of China's auto market was low, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles, which had been performing well, also experienced a rare decline. The year-on-year growth rate reached a record low. Many people believed that the auto market in 2023 would be very difficult.
However, at the national passenger car market analysis meeting in February, Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Federation, admitted that he wanted to describe the car market in February with "a good start" at the beginning.
What is the February auto market that made Cui Dongshu have this idea?
At the meeting, Cui Dongshu analyzed the trend of the data and the differences between manufacturers and brands from the huge data, and pointed out the changes of the market pattern. It can be said that the car market in February is not as "difficult" as expected.
Information hidden behind data
In a word, both the overall market and the new energy market, the car market is in the process of recovery growth.
From the output data, the production of the car market in February this year showed a good trend of super-strong growth, in which the MPV production was strong; From the perspective of retail data, the retail sales volume of passenger car market in February formed a high growth on a month-on-month basis, and affected by the low retail base in January, the month-on-month trend in February was significantly stronger.
In the new energy market, after February, the new energy production has recovered rapidly and the sales growth trend is strong, which is mainly due to two reasons.
On the one hand, the impact of national policies on the consumption of new energy vehicles is obvious. The new energy subsidy policy, which was born in 2009, was officially withdrawn at the end of last year. Many people chose to seize the tail of the subsidy policy and buy cars at the end of last year. Due to the early release of consumer enthusiasm and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the car market was cold in January this year, and the performance was poor. By contrast, the new energy market showed strong growth momentum in February.
On the other hand, new energy Class A and Class B vehicles have significantly boosted the overall sales. In February, the sales volume of Class B electric vehicles was 121000, up 42% year-on-year and 15% month-on-month, accounting for 35% of pure electric vehicles. In the pure electric market, the A00 and A0 economic electric vehicles market has risen, and the A00 wholesale sales volume is 40000, accounting for 12% of the pure electric vehicles; A0 wholesale sales volume is 100000 vehicles, accounting for 29% of pure electric vehicles; The sales volume of Class A electric vehicles was 81000, accounting for 23% of pure electric vehicles; The sales of electric vehicles at all levels are relatively differentiated.
Specifically, in the production, retail and wholesale data of new energy vehicles, the plug-in and hybrid type increased significantly year-on-year, with a stronger growth momentum than the pure electric type; However, the growth rate of retail and wholesale data of pure electric vehicles was stronger than that of plug-in vehicles. In addition, the export of new energy vehicles is also the weight for the growth of new energy vehicles. In February, 79000 new energy vehicles were exported, of which pure electric accounted for 96%. Pure electric is still the core of the development of new energy vehicles in the future.
Under the catfish effect, independent brands become the mainstay
In the process of transformation from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, independent brands have increasingly become a backbone of the car market with their strong vitality, playing a role of mainstay. Whether it is retail volume, wholesale volume, or export volume, independent brands have good performance.
In February, the retail volume of independent brands was 10000, up 29% year-on-year and 12% month-on-month. The domestic retail share of independent brands was 51.1%, up 7 percentage points year on year. In the wholesale market, the market share of independent brands was 53.3%, 9.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.
In the new energy market and export market, independent brands have also gained significant growth. The transformation and upgrading of traditional automobile enterprises in the head has performed well, and the share of traditional automobile enterprises such as BYD, Chang'an, Geely and Chery has increased significantly. Of course, BYD, with its pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive, is still firmly in the leading position of its own brand of new energy, which is unmatched.
In addition, the traditional automobile enterprises represented by Chang'an, SAIC, GAC and Geely also performed better in the new energy sector. In terms of product launch, with the multi-line development of independent automobile enterprises on the new energy route, the market base continues to expand, and the number of enterprises with wholesale sales of more than 10000 vehicles has risen to 10 (up 3 on a month-on-month basis and 5 on a year-on-year basis), accounting for 83% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles.
However, in contrast to the booming independent brands, the traditional joint venture brands are deteriorating, and "decline" is its main label.
In February, 480000 mainstream joint-venture brands were retailed, down 12% year-on-year and up 2% month-on-month. In addition to the 0.2 percentage point year-on-year increase in the retail share of German brands, both Japanese and American brands are declining. Among them, the retail share of Japanese brands was 17.6%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year; The retail share of American brands reached 7.5%, down 1.6 percentage points year on year. It is an indisputable fact that the life of joint venture brands is not easy.
The purpose of price reduction and promotion is to achieve immediate results
Recently, the news of price reduction in the car market has emerged in an endless stream, becoming a hot topic of concern for consumers and the industry. Price reduction is also a key word repeatedly mentioned in the follow-up meeting Q&A.
Among the numerous subsidies and price reductions, the biggest one is undoubtedly the huge subsidies of Hubei Automobile: the subsidies of Dongfeng Citroen, Dongfeng Peugeot, Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Fengshen and other brands of Dongfeng Motor vary from 5000 yuan to 90000 yuan.
It is understood that Dongfeng officials said yesterday that this is a normal market behavior, and the price reduction in the new energy vehicle industry is very strong. Relevant posters have also indicated that subsidies are government and enterprise subsidies, including subsidies from the government and enterprises.
The large price reduction means that the existing price system will be impacted. However, according to Cui Dongshu's point of view, the core purpose of the subsidy and price reduction promotion activities carried out by government and enterprises is to achieve the publicity effect of wide dissemination through substantial price reduction, thus stimulating the consumption enthusiasm of the masses. In this way, the sales volume of automobile enterprises will increase significantly in the short term, and this effect will gradually fade in the later period.
In addition, from July 1 this year, the sixth national emission standard, known as the most stringent emission standard, will be officially implemented. Then, in the transition phase between country 6 A and country 6 B, the new car price of country 6 A will also continue to decline. Because the vehicle enterprises that use the transition of the model with the emission standard of the sixth national standard need to clear the inventory before the official implementation of the sixth national standard, and the price reduction promotion is the most direct and effective means.
Moreover, this kind of price reduction promotion is generally a time-limited rush purchase, nor a full series of activities, which will not bring serious sequelae to the car market.
In fact, not only Hubei Province, but also Jilin Province has started the process of preferential subsidies. At present, it is not ruled out that more surrounding provinces will be affected by radiation and take price reduction and promotion measures in the short term, which will also form a siphon effect on the sales structure of central provinces.
In the key period of auto market transformation, price adjustment and fluctuation are inevitable. The impact of new energy vehicles on traditional fuel vehicles is mainly concentrated on low and medium price models, while the impact of entry and high-end models is small. Although there are many policies of price reduction and promotion, there will not be much conflict with the overall price system. Compared with the same period last year, there was no impact of epidemic factors in March this year. Therefore, there was more time for the production and sales of vehicles in March than last year, which was conducive to the increase of production and sales. With the continuous acceleration of new energy and intelligence, and the rise of independent brands, the car market will continue to grow strongly in the future.
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