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The post-epidemic electric car market: central Europe is roaring ahead, and the U.S. may hit the brakes

Publish Date: 2020.05.27

Sharp rises and falls have become the norm in many countries.




Electric cars do not usually slide into neutral gear, but are designed to accelerate or brake suddenly at any moment. Similarly, the development of the electric vehicle market is in the same trend. The boom and slump have become the normal sales volume in many countries.



Bloomberg new energy finance (BNEF), a research arm of bloomberg news, recently released a report that predicts a new wave of positive industrial growth in China, Europe and other countries that are using finance and infrastructure to boost consumption of electric vehicles in the context of the covid-19 pandemic.



But in the u.s., sales of electric vehicles are likely to slow sharply in coming months as government policy support wanes and automakers are under cash pressure to focus on their most profitable products, such as gasoline trucks and suvs.

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Colin McKerracher, BNEF's senior executive in charge of transportation business research, said that electric vehicle production and sales are likely to continue to rise, if not fall, and that this is a topic of great concern to the industry. He further predicts that between now and 2040, different countries will have very different attitudes towards electric vehicles.



In the United States, where sales of electric vehicles will shrink to just 1.7 percent of the retail auto market by 2021, sales in China will take a different turn, surging to 8.1 percent of new-car sales, making it the world's largest market for electric vehicles.


In Europe, it will be 5 per cent.

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BNEF also predicts that conventional fuel vehicles will still account for more than half of global vehicle sales in the coming years, but the market has peaked. Globally, there is no longer a sales boom like the one in 2017.



Volvo, for example, wants electric vehicles to account for more than half of its sales within five years, as chief executive Hakan Samuelsson once said, and the popularity of covid-19 has revived the company's ambitions.




Samuelson's digital meeting held on May 14, said he believes the outbreak of the negative effect will gradually weaken, after a few months everything will be back to normal, "but, if you still think the showroom is still the leading role of diesel, this idea may seem a little childish, electric car era has arrived, and the related demand has been accelerated."

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On the other side of the ocean, gm is still trying to figure out exactly when to launch its crucial electrified GMC Hummer and Cadillac Lyriq models. Most of gm's engineers are still at home, as several automakers, including the Detroit big three, have experienced a "dark moment" of factory closures and store closures as a result of the outbreak in the United States.




Gm is responsible for the electrification and automatic driving, vice President of Ken Morris (Ken Morris) said recently that the company's schedule on electric vehicle products have not changed, he in a conference call on May 12, told foreign media reporters, although outbreaks make part of the business press the pause button, but in terms of electrification transformation, the company has not lost rhythm.




Still, most industry insiders or forecasters, including BNEF, agree that while the covid-19 pandemic has not yet affected the launch of these key models, there is no doubt that its ravages have affected some important decisions for manufacturers, such as changes in production of new vehicles and where they will eventually be sold.

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Like most recent forecasts, BNEF is not optimistic. It does not think global car sales will fully recover in five years. However, they remain optimistic about the future of electric vehicles and believe that electrified models may be able to weather the difficult economic downturn more easily than traditional gas-powered vehicles.




Globally, BNEF predicts that by around 2025, one in 10 cars sold will be electric, and sales will reach about 8.5 million.


However, only 13% of this huge volume belongs to the us market. The U.S. is the world's second-largest auto market, with the highest sales barriers for auto brands and a $7,500 federal tax credit for battery-powered models, and the trump administration is trying to withdraw emissions mandates and challenge states that continue to enforce them.

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