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Lithium carbonate plummets, causing people who can't wake up and pretend to sleep

Publish Date: 2023.03.29

"White oil", no matter how expensive, cannot withstand the cyclical cycle; Just like the trend of new energy vehicles, they are already unstoppable at this time.

  

  "As you go up, so go down.".

  

  The price war in the automotive market is lively, and the market situation of battery raw materials, especially lithium carbonate, is also fluctuating. Obviously, the relationship between the two is not a simple cause and effect, but rather an interaction that runs through the entire industrial chain.

  

  In the past, citing the soaring price of lithium carbonate, many car companies have been crying and rushing to pass on extra costs to consumers. Now, with the price of lithium carbonate plummeting and price wars superimposed, are new energy vehicle companies willing to adjust prices back?

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  In fact, reducing costs and increasing efficiency is always the key to the development of industrial manufacturing, especially in the automotive industry. It is precisely for this reason that the automotive industry relies heavily on economies of scale. The reason why Tesla is able to excel in the new energy vehicle market is also due to the role of scale.

  

  In short, the larger the scale, the lower the cost of sharing, so Tesla has room to reduce prices again and again.

  

  From a development perspective, whether Wei Xiaoli, Xiaomi, Jidu, or newly built car forces are developing well in the future, they need to undergo a stage similar to Tesla's price reduction. Unfortunately, when the horn of price war sounded, everything became involuntary.

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  To be fair, the thorny issue today is that consumer demand is weakening, and if auto companies do not reduce prices, there will be no market share. Without market share, it will be difficult to form scale, and if there is no scale, it will be difficult to share costs and reduce prices, while if auto companies do not reduce prices, there will be no market. In this cycle, the situation will only get worse and worse.

  

  On the other hand, the cost and price of lithium carbonate, the core raw material for power batteries, has been falling all the way, which can be said to be one of the few good news in the automotive industry this year. At least in terms of vehicle manufacturing costs, every 100000 tons of lithium carbonate decreased, saving 3000 yuan per vehicle.

  

  So the question is, are car companies really willing to take advantage of the situation and lower prices?

  

  01

  

  The collision of cycles and trends

  

  Obviously, the raw materials for power batteries, led by lithium carbonate, are entering a downward cycle; The development process of the new energy vehicle market has also coincided with a key node.

  

  The collision between the two will not only affect upstream raw material suppliers, but also promote changes in the overall pattern of the automotive industry.

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  In people's impression, apart from BYD and Tesla, I'm afraid only new forces like Wei Xiaoli are left to be considered as new energy vehicle brands.

  

  The reason for this is that before this year's price war, there was a marketing war in the automotive market, with slogans such as "the best domestic SUV within 5 million" and "the best SUV within 500000" emerging endlessly. With the momentum of last year, Wei Xiaoli was able to gradually stand at the forefront of public opinion.

  

  However, with the advent of the post epidemic era, consumer attitudes have begun to undergo significant changes. Unlike the price performance expected by consumers, the new energy vehicle companies led by Wei Xiaoli still adhere to the label of "high-end".

  

  In this way, they all go to the high-end, new energy vehicle market of less than 200000 yuan. Who will dominate?

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  Undoubtedly, this precipitous decline in the price of lithium carbonate has brought an opportunity for the transformation of traditional automotive companies.

  

  Unlike traditional fuel vehicles, the three-electric system of new energy vehicles is the main threshold, and the cost of power batteries accounts for a larger proportion of it. As the price of lithium carbonate drops, the cost of power batteries will inevitably decline. Traditional car companies can take this opportunity to further break away from the shackles of power batteries and focus on the widely criticized design and experience of users.

  

  In the mid to low end market, despite the influence of BYD, new energy vehicles below 200000, including hybrid and pure electric vehicles, are still a blue ocean market. Coincidentally, people's demand for vehicles in this price range is also more robust.

  

  The same price of oil and electricity will not be the end point. With the further exploration of lithium carbonate and the cost sharing of scale advantages, electric vehicles will be cheaper than oil vehicles. At that time, the "new power" under traditional automobile brands will have a better advantage in price wars than the "new power" that is helpless.

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  The 120000 C6 tells us that there is no car that cannot be sold, only at an inappropriate price. Regardless of the damage to the brand image, many new car building forces actually have only one way to go, such as Zero Run, Nezha

  

  Enlarged into the entire industry chain, regarding the "dilemma of the new energy industry chain," there has been a recent rumor circulating among the public: iron phosphate is waiting for orders from iron and lithium plants, iron and lithium plants are waiting for orders from battery plants, battery plants are waiting for orders from car factories, car factories are reducing prices, and consumers are all buying new energy stocks.

  

  Such an absurd scene illustrates most of the industry facts. It is no exaggeration to say that the sharp drop in the price of lithium carbonate has shaken the entire automotive industry chain and even pushed the penetration of new energy vehicles further.

  

  So, what's next?

  

  02

  

  The turning point battle between oil and electric vehicles

  

  As Li Liangbin, chairman of Ganfeng Lithium Industry, said, if lithium salt had 600000 yuan per ton yesterday, it could have 100000 yuan per ton tomorrow.

  

  With the continuous decline in the price of lithium carbonate, the "lithium ore rebate" plan of the Ningde era must have lost its great appeal. Correspondingly, upstream raw material suppliers have also had to eat yesterday's causality and bear high risks under high returns.

  

  And those small and medium-sized manufacturers who hoard and stand guard at high positions can only face the risk of bankruptcy alone.

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  According to people familiar with the matter, the capacity utilization rate of a domestic power battery leader has seriously declined, with an operating rate of around 40%. In addition, in the first two months, the operating rate of the top battery manufacturers was not high. Along with upstream anode and cathode materials and electrolyte suppliers, they are also facing the problem of overcapacity.

  

  Please note that today's market is no longer the once prosperous market. Since 2023, a series of negative factors, such as the Russian-Uzbekistan War, the post epidemic era, the US interest rate hike, and geopolitical factors, have followed one another. Under the volatile environment, the entire automotive industry has been under heavy pressure.

  

  On the one hand, the automotive industry needs to assume the responsibility of economic recovery and maintain growth; On the other hand, consumers who have just emerged from the haze of the epidemic have tightened their consumption demand, and both gasoline and electric vehicles are facing a decline in demand and orders.

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  At this point, as March is about to run out, the fuel vehicle subsidy and price reduction war launched by Wuhan Citroen will also temporarily come to an end. It is still unknown whether the market trend will become increasingly inward bound or calm. However, it is certain that through this war, the share of new energy vehicles will become increasingly upward.

  

  According to the data from the Passenger Car Federation, although the sales of passenger cars in February have rebounded, since this year, both retail and wholesale volumes have declined significantly year-on-year, with the highest falling by nearly 19%.

  

  Looking further at the data from the Passenger Transport Association, it can be seen that under the downward trend of the market, the penetration rate and sales volume of new energy vehicles have instead risen against the trend. Although BYD has made great contributions, it can also see the market development trend.

  

  Coincidentally, Li Xiang also issued a similar prediction, claiming that by 2025, the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles will reach more than 70%.

  

  碳酸锂暴跌,叫不醒装睡的人

  

  There have been many controversies about new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, such as mileage anxiety, charging anxiety, and high power battery costs. However, the trend is irreversible, and the era is driving the entire automotive industry forward.

  

  It is not difficult to predict that in the coming days, there will be more and more new energy vehicle companies, gradually forming a scale advantage, and then occupying a sufficient market share.

  

  They may be new forces struggling to build cars, or "new strengths" incubated by traditional brands, but they are definitely not "diehards" who pretend to sleep and turn a blind eye to new energy.

  

  In fact, the collapse of lithium carbonate has given new energy vehicles the confidence to officially attack fuel vehicles. Although the entire new energy vehicle industry is in the midst of a price war, only after experiencing several experiences of blood and fire, survival and death can genuine materials be refined.

  

  Now that the stage has been set up, let's wait for the major brands to come on stage and show their skills.

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