On October 13, the China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) released the 2026 September auto dealer inventory survey data. The overall inventory coefficient of auto dealers stood at 1.68 in the month, rising by 6.3% month-on-month and 24.4% year-on-year, exceeding the inventory warning line of 1.5.

The traditional "Golden September" peak season failed to deliver strong performance. On the demand side, consumers are less confident about vehicle purchases and tend to make decisions cautiously. Many buyers hold off purchases, waiting for National Day auto shows or year-end promotions, which lengthens transaction cycles. Continuous purchase subsidies, terminal price cuts and financial incentives throughout the year have weakened the exclusivity of discounts in the traditional peak season. Market expectations for policy dividends unique to the "Golden September & Silver October" period have cooled markedly.

On the supply side, automakers launched advance year-end volume push in September. New models across all price segments hit the market intensively, while multiple brands rolled out limited-time terminal offers. Coupled with local automobile consumption subsidies in various regions, both new vehicle supply and promotional policies were ramped up. Although the market saw marginal improvement starting from the third week of September with more store visits and orders, overall terminal sales remained under pressure and dealer inventories kept climbing.

According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.618 million units in September. Based on this figure, the total inventory held by auto dealers at the end of September was approximately 2.7 million units, further aggravating pressure on distribution channels.

Inventory trends diverged across brand segments. Luxury and imported brands posted an inventory coefficient of 1.54, down 20.2% month-on-month, the only category with falling inventory. Joint-venture brands recorded an inventory coefficient of 1.90, up 9.8% month-on-month. The inventory coefficient of domestic brands stood at 1.60, rising by 10.3% month-on-month.

Looking ahead to October, CADA projects that passenger vehicle sales will see a slight month-on-month increase, following a pattern of "spiking during holidays and falling afterwards". The National Day holiday and auto shows will boost customer traffic and orders. New rounds of local auto consumption subsidies will be implemented, alongside automakers’ year-end volume push, supporting a month-on-month sales improvement. Still, downward pressure will persist after the holiday.

CADA advises dealers to forecast market demand rationally and keep inventory at reasonable levels. Dealers should step up promotion of trade-in and vehicle scrappage renewal policies, boost consumer confidence by improving services, prioritize cost reduction and efficiency gains, and guard against operational risks.