Colonial, the US fuel pipeline operator, suffered a serious cyber attack, triggering market concerns about soaring oil prices. At present, the impact of the incident is still limited to the United States. If it is resolved in the short term, its impact on the international crude oil market will be very limited. At present, the rise of oil prices is restricted by multiple factors: major oil-producing countries are committed to stabilizing oil prices, Iran's return to the market is expected to heat up, and the outbreak of the epidemic in India has severely hit market demand. On the whole, oil prices will continue to fluctuate with a high probability in the future.

　　Recently, the international energy market suddenly encountered a "black swan". The US fuel pipeline operator Colonel suffered a serious cyber attack, and the company was forced to shut down the system and suspend the operation of the East Coast Fuel Transportation Pipeline. The pipeline operated by Colonier is the main pipeline for gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel on the East Coast of the United States. The cyber attack has greatly affected the supply of refined oil in the region. Some areas even panic buying due to fear of fuel shortages. US gasoline futures prices rose by 4%, reaching their highest level since May 2018.

　　On the whole, the "Black Swan" incident has limited impact on the market. After just experiencing the "ship jam" incident in the Suez Canal, the cyber attack undoubtedly added fuel to the energy market. Concerns in the market believed that a new round of surge in international oil prices might occur as a result. However, some analysts pointed out that the current impact of the incident is still limited to the United States. If it is resolved in the short term, its impact on the international crude oil market will be very limited.

　　Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) show that U.S. crude oil inventories have fallen more than expected. With the advent of summer and the advancement of U.S. vaccination, domestic energy consumption demand in the U.S. is gradually increasing, and the U.S. domestic market Supply exceeds demand, and it is normal for gasoline prices to rise.

　　Colonial’s inventory can meet at least one to two weeks of consumer demand in the region. If pipeline operations resume within two weeks, market supply and demand will not be more affected. Colonier Company issued a statement on May 10, local time, saying that the company is formulating a plan to resume the operation of fuel transportation pipelines that were forced to close due to cyber attacks in a step-by-step manner under the premise of ensuring safety. The goal is to resume operations within this week. . The statement said that currently the No. 4 pipeline has resumed manual limited operations, and other main pipelines are still closed, but the operations of some regional sub-pipelines are being restored. The company maintains close contact with the US Department of Energy to ensure that operations are resumed as soon as possible within the scope of compliance. However, if Colonier cannot resume normal services as soon as possible, the impact of supply fluctuations on market prices may be magnified, and the negative impact caused will also need to be reassessed.

　　At present, there are multiple factors restricting the soaring oil price. First, stabilizing oil prices has become the consensus of major oil-producing countries. In the recent period, international oil prices have fluctuated upwards. They have stabilized at the 60 USD/barrel mark and have continuously launched shocks to 70 USD/barrel. The "OPEC+" composed of major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia held a ministerial meeting and decided to reduce the scale of production cuts in stages from May to July. The oil-producing countries will increase production by 350,000 barrels per day in May, 6 On this basis, it will increase production by 350,000 barrels per day in July, and increase production by 441,000 barrels per day in July. In addition, Saudi Arabia will gradually withdraw from the existing 1 million barrels per day of additional voluntary production reduction plans before July. OPEC pointed out in its monthly market report released on May 11 that after entering the second half of the year, global crude oil consumption will increase significantly. Therefore, the global demand forecast for the third quarter was adjusted to 97.75 million barrels per day, an increase of 150,000 barrels. /Day, the fourth-quarter demand forecast was adjusted to 99.74 million barrels/day, an increase of 290,000 barrels/day. After the report was released, international oil prices rose slightly. The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $65.28 per barrel, up $0.36, or 0.55%; London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in July The price closed at 68.55 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.23 US dollars, an increase of 0.34%.

　　Analysis pointed out that the "OPEC+" ministerial meeting and OPEC's monthly market report showed the optimistic expectations of oil-producing countries for the market and their firm determination to maintain market stability. The third quarter is not only the peak of summer energy consumption, but also the time node when the fiscal stimulus plans of various countries have achieved initial results. "OPEC+" chooses to increase production steadily and slightly at this time. Not only can it compete for more market share, but it can also prevent international oil prices from skyrocketing during this critical period and hurting the still fragile world economic recovery process.

　　Secondly, Iran returned to the market as expected to heat up. At present, the parties involved in the "Iranian Nuclear Agreement" are in Vienna to start negotiations on the resumption of the agreement. Iranian President Rouhani has repeatedly expressed optimism to the outside world about the lifting of sanctions. The market expects that the US government is expected to lift sanctions on Iran in the energy and financial fields. Once Iranian oil is lifted on the market, its output is expected to reach 3 million barrels per day, which will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the current relatively stable supply side.

　　Once again, the outbreak of the epidemic in India has severely hit market demand. As the world’s third largest oil importer and consumer, India’s domestic new crown pneumonia epidemic is rapidly worsening. The number of new confirmed cases in a single day has exceeded 400,000 for several consecutive days, the total number of confirmed cases has exceeded 23 million, and the death toll has exceeded 250,000. . The new crown pneumonia epidemic has severely hit India's domestic energy consumption demand, and has also affected countries such as Nepal and Sri Lanka around India. OPEC stated in its monthly report: “India is currently facing severe challenges related to the epidemic, so it will have a negative impact on its recovery in the second quarter.” Some analysts pointed out that if India implements a blockade throughout the country to curb the spread of the new crown virus. Measures, its consumption activities and refinery production will face stagnation, which will not only lead to a sharp drop in its oil demand, but also may drag down the global economic recovery and further hit international oil prices.

　　Overall, oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the future. On the demand side of the international energy market, China has effectively controlled the spread of the epidemic in a timely and effective manner, and China's economic growth has built a solid upward channel for the international energy market. At the same time, despite the repeated "black swan" incidents in the international energy market, the impact on the market is relatively short-lived, and it is difficult to become the main driving force for the soaring oil price. Under the influence of multiple factors such as the increase in "OPEC+" production and the spread of the epidemic, It is difficult for oil prices to surge in a short period of time, and will show more fluctuations and upward trends.