The outbreak continues to worsen overseas, choking off a recovering auto import and export market.

      So far, the number of affected countries and regions outside China has reached 135. In the past week, we have seen a global outbreak in the face of the various countries in the "pandemic", also witnessed the United States in the history of the three circuit breaker.

      The combination of the outbreak and the economic downturn has cast a shadow over the global auto industry. In February, the domestic auto market suffered the biggest decline of the century, but since the outbreak was more concentrated in China in February, auto companies are targeting growth overseas.

      In fact, in February, the car companies in a uniform decline in the production and sales report, there is indeed a warm trend of "growth", and here "growth", basically focused on export sales. For example, in February, saic achieved 21,000 vehicle outlets and overseas retail sales, up 32% year on year. Chery's export and overseas retail sales rose 39.9% to 8,419 units in February.

      However, the rapid spread of the disease around the world since march has accelerated the rate at which the current is cooling.

      Southeast Asia and South America, affected by the epidemic, have a greater impact on China's auto exports

      From the perspective of the regions and markets where Chinese automobile enterprises "go to sea" to fight, the "foothold" of Chinese automobile enterprises overseas at this stage is basically concentrated in southeast Asia, the Middle East, north Africa and South America. Some automobile enterprises are also actively expanding the European and north American markets.

      Let's take a look at how the epidemic is developing in these areas.

      As of March 17, more than 100 people had been confirmed in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Among them, Malaysia has 673 people, making it the most confirmed country in southeast Asia.

      The most immediate impact on the auto industry as the outbreak spreads in southeast Asia and the Middle East has been shutdowns. Take India as an example. As a result of the outbreak, a large number of auto parts have been cut off. Car companies such as tata motors, mahindra, TVS Motor and others based in India said they are facing the problem of parts being cut off, and some of them have suspended production.

      The move follows an internal announcement by tata motors that, from March 16, it would require office workers at its headquarters and elsewhere to work from home. At the same time, the company has taken steps such as suspending international travel for its employees in response to the ongoing outbreak.

      Brazil, in South America, is also being hit. As of March 17, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Brazil had reached 234, the highest in South America.

      Brazil's economy ministry on Thursday unveiled a series of measures to ease the negative impact of the new pneumonia outbreak on the economy and to support vulnerable groups. This includes a contingency fund of 147.3 billion Brazilian reais, of which 59.4 billion was used to protect jobs.

      The impact of the outbreak on the Brazilian auto industry has been mainly reflected in the risk of production shutdowns caused by the supply of parts in China. The shutdown is expected to have a negative impact on Brazil's auto industry in April because the country relies on China for most of its auto parts.

      Mentioned above, southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America region is the export of China's vehicle enterprises. For example, chery's monthly sales in Brazil have reached more than 2,000 units, ranking among the top among Chinese brands. Saic has a good market share in India and Thailand. Now the spread of the disease in these areas will have an impact on Chinese car companies' exports and local production.

      The outbreak has made it harder for Chinese automakers to enter the U.S. and Europe

      Europe is the worst affected region outside China, compared with southeast Asia, Africa and South America. As of March 17, Italy had more than 30,000 confirmed cases and was the first country in Europe to impose a nationwide blockade. More than 10,000 people have been confirmed in Spain, second only to Italy, which has imposed a lockdown. The implementation of this policy, also makes the European car manufacturing industry faced with a large area of shutdown.

      Vw will reportedly stop production this week at plants in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Slovakia. Daimler, Renault, PSA, ford and nissan have announced plans to close their plants in Europe.

      The outbreak has also spread to North America, with more than 6,000 confirmed cases in the United States as of March 18. According to foreign media reports, the combination of the outbreak and the economic downturn will lead to a 20% drop in us car sales this year. Meanwhile, Detroit's big three, general motors, ford motor and fiat Chrysler, have seen their shares plunge.

      Of course, the European and north American auto industries are relatively mature, and most of the strong Chinese auto companies have r&d and marketing centers in the European and American markets, but few have invested in factories. For example, saic currently has three r&d centers in silicon valley, London and tel aviv. Based on this, the spread of the epidemic in Europe and North America, the main impact on the local automotive industry is greater.

       It can be said that at this stage, Chinese car companies are still trying to expand in Europe and the United States. This year, saic plans to have 2-3 models in Europe; In addition, geely, chery, Great Wall and other domestic car companies are also exploring the European and American markets. Last month, chery announced that it had reached a north American distribution agreement with HAAH holdings, an American car dealer, to boost sales of its star in the United States under its Vantas brand.

      Now, the rapid spread of the disease overseas could hamper their plans to expand in the U.S. and Europe. Gac began planning to enter the north American market in 2017 and planned to complete the plan in 2019, but due to the impact of the 2019 trade war with the United States, gac had to temporarily abandon the plan. Now, in addition to the trade war, the outbreak is making it harder for Chinese automakers to make a big push into the U.S. and Europe.

      Russia's prevention and control of the escalation of the fear of affecting China's car sales in Russia

      It is worth mentioning that the Russian market has always been the place where Chinese brands "go to sea". Nowadays, chery, geely, Great Wall, lifan and so on all regard Russia as one of the overseas main battlefields, among which Great Wall and lifan respectively have factories in tula and petsk of Russia. Last year, Great Wall started production at its tula plant in Russia, which directly boosted its sales in the country. In 2019, Great Wall harf's growth rate in the Russian market was as high as 289 percent, making it the top-selling Chinese car brand in Russia, data showed.

      Now, against the background of the continuous deterioration of the epidemic in Europe, the prevention and control of the epidemic in Russia is also getting increasingly severe. As of March 17, the total number of confirmed cases in Russia was 114, of which 104 were imported cases. In view of this, Russia's epidemic control measures are also gradually escalating. And Russia's prevention and control upgrade will certainly have an impact on local auto production and sales.

      The outbreak throttles a recovering car export market

       According to the data released by the general administration of customs, in the first two months of this year, China's auto export volume was 152,000 units, up 0.5% year on year. Exports were $2.024 billion, down 1.3 percent from a year earlier. For all of 2019, China's auto exports rose 6.2 percent to 1.218 million units, or $15.341 billion, up 3.3 percent from a year earlier. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate of automobile export decreased by 5.7 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2019, and the growth rate of export turned from positive growth to negative growth.

      Analysts believe, "the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, is to stop the pace of improving auto imports and exports of the main culprit, but also to stop the slow recovery in the development of the trend of the enemy.

      In February, China's auto exports are shrinking compared with 2019, although domestic automakers such as saic, chery, geely and Great Wall posted decent growth in overseas markets. In march, with the spread of the epidemic abroad and the escalation of the epidemic prevention and control work in various countries, the automobile production and sales in various countries and regions may decline to different degrees, which is also bound to affect the sales performance of Chinese automobiles in overseas markets.

      At present, saic, chery and other enterprises in the interview with gaishi all said that the outbreak on March export sales and retail sales in overseas markets is currently unable to assess the impact. But from the overall automotive market, China's car exports are likely to narrow again in March.