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The global automobile industry loses hundreds of billions of dollars due to chips. Will the price of buying a car increase in the later period?

Publish Date: 2021.05.29

  A number of multinational auto companies from different regions said that they are experiencing production pressure caused by the shortage of automotive chips, and this pressure is likely to continue to increase in the second quarter of this year.


  The global epidemic control has stabilized, but the problem of the shortage of chips in the automotive industry has still not been resolved.


  Recently, AlixPartners (American consulting firm AlixPartners) released a related analysis saying that the shortage of semiconductor chips will result in a loss of 110 billion U.S. dollars in revenue for global automakers in 2021, and is expected to affect the production of 3.9 million vehicles.


  Compared with the forecast at the end of January of this year of "US$60.6 billion in loss and impact on 2.2 million car production", the estimated loss of global automakers has increased by 81.5%, and the total number of affected cars has increased by 1.7 million.


  Although Arrow's current forecast accuracy has yet to be verified, the impact of chip shortages in the global automotive industry is undoubtedly more obvious. In this context, many multinational auto companies from different regions such as Volkswagen, Nissan, General Motors, Stellatis (Stellantis), etc., said that they are experiencing production pressure caused by the shortage of automotive chips, and this pressure may be in Continue to increase in the second quarter of this year.


  Industry analysts believe that while the global auto industry is being affected, the Chinese auto market is naturally under considerable cost pressure. So far, the price of domestic auto products has not risen significantly, most likely due to the market structure of oversupply.


  Global chip shortage


  On May 13, Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida stated in CNBC's "European Finance Forum" program that due to chip shortages and soaring raw material prices, it is expected that the production of about 500,000 cars this year will be affected.


  At the same time, Stalantes also announced recently that it will cut the second shift at the Belvidere factory before July 26. According to the official statement, the reduction in shifts is to balance Jeep Cherokee's sales and production. Stelantis said that the decline in Cherokee SUV production is "intensified by the unprecedented global shortage of microchips." The production capacity adjustment plan will affect 1671 employees.


  At present, the shortage of automotive chips has spread to the entire auto market. In addition to Nissan and Stalantes, GM and Ford, which are American countries, are also facing the same production pressure. According to CBS report, due to the shortage of chips, General Motors of the United States announced in early April that its six plants in North America have stopped production for a week or more; Ford Motor Company of the United States said in March that the shortage of chips has left thousands of new cars idle or lost in assembly plants. 1 billion to 2.5 billion US dollars in sales.


  In response to the impact of the chip shortage, Ford Motor has said recently that it is redesigning auto parts to use more available chips. According to Reuters’ recent report, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimundo said that he is putting pressure on Taiwan’s semiconductor manufacturers and other companies to prioritize the needs of U.S. auto companies in order to ease the short-term automotive chips. shortage.


  From the perspective of mainstream country models sold in the Chinese market, the impact of chip shortages does not only exist in Europe and the United States. The factory is located in Asia and the Korean auto industry is also no exception. According to relevant reports from CCTV Finance. Due to the interruption of the supply of automotive chips and the pressure on production, some local Korean car companies will launch low-profile and low-priced simplified models in the near future to maintain production. Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors, which account for 70% to 80% of the Korean domestic market, currently have only two to six weeks of chip inventory left.


  Relevant statistics show that software such as chip sensors currently accounts for about 35% of car costs. In response to the current situation of global chip tension, Mark Wakefield, co-head of Arrow's global automotive market, said that now, automakers are seeking to establish direct contact with semiconductor manufacturers. The risk of production cuts caused by semiconductor shortages is real, not a potential risk.


  Limited domestic influence


  As a major auto country that supports one-third of global auto sales, my country’s auto industry has naturally failed to stay out of the matter. At the China Automobile Industry Association's monthly information conference held recently, Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that the shortage of chips has affected the production and sales of automobiles to a certain extent, and will affect the performance of the automobile market throughout the second quarter. According to Chen Shihua's personal prediction, the chip shortage problem may not be alleviated until the fourth quarter of this year.


  In this context, Weilai Automobile said on March 26 that due to chip shortages, production was temporarily suspended for 5 working days, and the delivery volume in the first quarter was affected. Great Wall Motor once issued an announcement on April 25 that due to the tight supply of chips, factory production was affected to a certain extent, but it did not stop production.


  According to the statistics of the Federation of Passengers, the output of my country's auto market in April this year was 1.71 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 13% compared to April 2020, higher than the same period in 2019. A total of 6.52 million vehicles were produced from January to April, an increase of 59% year-on-year. Regardless of whether it is viewed from a single month in April or combined with the cumulative output of the previous four months, the shortage of chips has little impact on the production of domestic auto OEMs.


  On this basis, the monthly retail volume of my country's passenger car market in April this year was 1.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13% and an increase of 8% compared to April 2019. The cumulative inventory of manufacturers from January to April decreased by 180,000 units year-on-year, which was similar to the decrease in inventory from January to April of the previous year. Although retail sales fell by 7% month-on-month in a single month, it was basically the same as the previous year's average month-on-month growth rate.


  Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Travel Federation, believes that although the shortage of chips has affected the production rhythm of some domestic OEMs, major manufacturers have used the shortest time to adapt to the "tight days" and have stabilized production and sales through more flexible production measures. . Due to the follow-up effects of the Renesas fire in Japan in March and other factors gradually emerged, the order of chip supply was relatively chaotic, resulting in a certain risk of the increase in production in May. With the short-term upstream chip shortage, the problem appears. At the terminal sales level, there may be further promotion of destocking and discount recovery.


  At present, the global semiconductor shortage is also suppressing production, making inventories tight and pushing up car prices. Fortunately, the current competition in the Chinese automotive field is fierce. With traditional car companies vying to grab market share and new car manufacturers constantly impacting the existing product landscape, with the exception of some Tesla products that have raised their sales prices due to rising raw material costs, the remaining mainstream car products have not seen price changes .


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