These days, it takes a strong heart to get into U.S. stocks.
The dow Jones industrial average and the standard & poor's 500-stock index plunged 7.82 percent and 7.01 percent, triggering circuit breakers that shut down trading for 15 minutes. It was the fourth such circuit breaker in ten days, starting on March 9th. Since circuit breakers were introduced in 1988, there have been only five.
This historic moment is closely related to the outbreak in the United States.
In mid-to-late February, the main battleground for covid-19 shifted from wuhan, China, to western markets. In such circumstances, us stocks suffered a first round of declines, and by the end of February, they had fallen 12.3% in a period of more than 10 days.
It was the collapse in oil that triggered a second round of share price declines, and ultimately the recent first. While the immediate cause of the oil slump was Saudi Arabia's failure to negotiate with Russia and its eventual decision to pump a lot more oil in a price war, underlying it was still market concern about the current global economic uncertainty. In other words, the oil crash added to market fears about the epidemic's economic lethality, leaving investors more worried about the future.
The latest decline in share prices more directly reflects the impact of the growing epidemic in Europe and the us, with a crisis in market flows, passive unwinding of leveraged funds and rising recession risks.
It is not without good news. Us time on March 24, the United States stocks rose across the board, among them, the dow Jones index rose more than 2,100 points, more than 11%, the biggest gain since 1933. The s&p 500 rose 9.4 per cent, its biggest one-day gain since October 2008.
The stock market sudden "return to the sun", and a number of policies closely related. Mr Trump gave congress an ultimatum to approve a $2tn stimulus package, while G7 finance ministers issued a joint statement saying they would do whatever it took to restore confidence and growth. Under the stimulus of multiple powerful drugs, the us stock market is finally showing signs of turning.
But the way the outbreak is going, it looks more like a bounce.
At least 53,268 cases of covid-19 have been confirmed in the us as of 17:00 est, the second day in a row that the number of new cases exceeded 10,000, accounting for more than 12% of the world's total confirmed cases. At least 15 states have issued "homeownership orders". As the outbreak continues to spread, a who spokesman has even suggested that the us could be the next "epicentre" of the outbreak.
Investors are eager for big moves by Europe and America to rescue the market
US President Donald trump is clearly losing his nerve as the economy continues to weaken.
Donald trump said at a news conference on the evening of March 23 that the economic damage from the outbreak could be worse than the further spread of the virus in the near future. In response, he said the next few cases of the region may be lifted restrictions, normal production and life.
Meanwhile, America may soon be open for business again. "We will be open to business very soon, much sooner than the three or four months that some have suggested. We can't make the treatment worse than the problem." While the decision went against the advice of federal public health officials, trump apparently had no intention of changing his mind.
Policy, the epidemic, the United States, the American auto industry
Such a radical approach might also suggest that American society is in a funk about the state of the economy.
Just two days earlier, house speaker Nancy pelosi attended a meeting between key congressional leaders and the Treasury secretary, where a third round of emergency economic aid proposed by republicans was rejected. The package includes nearly $2 trillion in stimulus.
According to us financial media, investors are waiting for congress to pass the plan. But the failure to pass the bill sent the three major us stock indexes into another collective decline on Monday: the s&p 500 fell 2.93% to 2,237.4; Nasdaq was down 0.27% at 6,860.67; The dow was down 3.04% at 18,528.
Such a move in share prices is clearly out of everyone's expectation. After all, on the 23rd of Beijing time, the federal reserve announced that it would continue to buy us Treasury bonds and mortgages, backed by securities, to support the smooth operation of the market, with no limit on the amount. At the same time, it will buy $75 billion of Treasury bonds and $50 billion of agency mortgages a day this week to back securities, and the quoted daily and regular repo rates will be reset at 0%.
This is not the first time the fed has offered market stimulus. As early as March 12th and 13th, the fed spent $1.5 trillion on repurchases and unveiled a massive repurchase programme; It then cut rates by 100 basis points to zero on March 15th and unveiled a $700 billion programme of quantitative easing. On March 17th the federal reserve announced the reopening of its commercial paper financing facility (CPFF), which provides short-term loans for up to 90 days to 24 primary dealers starting on March 20th.
But even under the intense stimulus, there is still no sign of a rally. Goldman sachs forecasts that global real GDP will contract by about 1% this year, and that America's GDP will fall by 24% in the second quarter. Some economists reckon that American firms could lose up to $4 trillion as a result of the outbreak, many of them even going bankrupt.
What is more, it is a global disaster, not just in the us, but also in Europe, the epicentre of the outbreak. On March 23, Europe's stoxx 50 fell 3.05%, Germany's DAX30 fell 2.95%, Britain's ftse 100 fell 3.76% and France's cac-40 fell 3.05%. Similar to the United States, on March 24, European stock markets collectively rebounded sharply as Europe launched a 750 billion euro rescue plan, with the stoxx 50 index up 5.13 percent, Germany's DAX index up 5.60 percent and Britain's ftse 100 index up 3.63 percent.
China's foreign trade enterprises face "life and death"
In today's highly globalized economy, the world economy is so, China is not completely immune from it.
In particular, "us listing" has even been the "darling" of the capital market. In 2019, for example, 33 Chinese companies went public in the United States, raising $3.565 billion. The previous year, 33 Chinese companies were listed on the New York stock exchange and nasdaq, a new high for recent years.
In the case of the us stock market circuit, the share price of Chinese companies can not escape a natural disaster. According to media statistics, alibaba, China mobile, China life insurance, jd.com, netease and pinduo.com, among the top 30 Chinese stocks in market value, fell 7.56% on average on March 12, and since February 21 (i.e. the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States), the cumulative average decline has reached 16.96%. Although not as ugly as the United States stock market, but also really lost a lot of money.
But the damage to China's foreign trade companies has been more lethal than the losses from the rush to list in the United States.
On March 21, an announcement of "dongguan precision watch co., LTD." went viral online. The announcement said that currently, "COVID-19" outbreak is rampant around the world. Europe and the United States in particular. The company's most important customer, "Fossil", is an American brand. It has stopped all orders and asked for cancellation or suspension of production orders. As a result, the factory cannot operate normally. Therefore, the company declared a three-month leave of absence, at the same time to accept the resignation of all staff, and leave immediately without deduction in lieu of notice.
Precision watch industry may be just the epitome of many foreign trade enterprises, under the impact of foreign epidemic, Chinese trading enterprises have entered the most difficult time.
Europe is by far China's largest trading partner, followed by the us and then Japan and South Korea, which together account for half of China's annual trade. But for now, these are also the places most affected by the outbreak.
According to the world health organization (who), the number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide has reached more than 410,000 as of 6 am Beijing time, including more than 180,000 in Europe and more than 56,000 in North America. Under such circumstances, many European countries have adopted strict prevention and control measures, which not only control domestic social activities, but also restrict entry and exit. Meanwhile, the United States has started "city closure" measures, which undoubtedly increase the difficulty of foreign trade business.
Even for many companies, the outbreak in China has just returned to work for more than 10 days, only to be shut down again by the global outbreak.
On March 19, the Ministry of Commerce department of foreign trade level of jiang fan, said the current COVID - 19 in the global outbreak, more than 160 countries and regions confirmed cases, some countries in areas such as production, consumption, trade activity decreases, the global economy downward pressure, in a period of time in the future, foreign trade enterprises may encounter in external, orders, etc.
On March 23, ma hua, deputy director of the guangdong provincial department of commerce, also announced that due to the global epidemic, the 127th Canton fair, originally scheduled for April 15, would not be held on time. The Canton fair has long been known as a barometer of foreign trade.
It is not difficult to see that for many small foreign trade enterprises, is in the line of life and death. Then, a rescue began.
At present, due to the popularity of new online sales methods such as live broadcasting, many foreign trade enterprises have started to export to domestic sales, live broadcasting "with goods" and sales on e-commerce platforms, in order to increase orders in China.
In addition, China credit insurance co., ltd. recently said it will further expand the coverage of short-term export credit insurance, coordinate the allocation of resources, and introduce targeted professional services to help enterprises strengthen export risk management to minimize their losses. These include providing key support services to enterprises that are more affected by the epidemic and strengthening protection against the risk of order cancellation.
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